The Swiss economy will release few fundamentals this week, where the release will include on inflation and unemployment data in the Swiss economy. Last Friday, Swiss retail sales rose 1.5% in March compared with the prior 2.6% drop recorded in February, while Swiss SVME PMI retreated to 59.3 in March from the previous 63.5.
The drop in manufacturing is not surprising after the previous appreciation in of the franc which reduced the appeal of Swiss commodities, where the franc was the highest gainer among major currencies in 2010 and with the lack of serious intervention from the SNB, the weakness of the yen after the G7 intervention and the drop in the dollar, the franc became the most attractive safe have, as it benefited from the unrest in the Middle East, Japanese earthquake crisis and European debt woes.
However, last Friday the dollar rebounded after non-farm payrolls employment added 216,000 jobs and unemployment dropped to 8.8% from the previous 8.9%, giving strong clues the US labor market is strong.
Thus, with the improvement in US data and latest Fed comments that policy makers may cut second-round stimulus, we might see upside direction for the pair.
Monday April 4
There is absence of data from the Swiss economy and US also which propose that trading will be calm this day.
Tuesday April 5
The Swiss economy lacks fundamentals, where the main highlight will be on US ISM non-manufacturing composite due at 02:00 GMT with expectations referring to a rise to 59.9 in March from 59.7. Also, minutes of FOMC meeting are scheduled to be out at 18:00 GMT.
Wednesday April 6
Inflation data for the Swiss economy are due at 09:15 GMT when CPI for March is out, where expectations refer to a decline on the monthly basis to 0.2% from 0.4% and to steady at 0.5% on the annual scale. Inflation rate is not concerning in the Swiss economy as it is far below the target and thereby may not have large impact on the pair’s movement that may not be affected that much by MBA mortgage Applications due at 11:00 GMT in the United States.
Thursday April 7
Once again, no data available from the Swiss economy, yet the US will release initial claims which are expected to decline to 384,000 from 388,000 to show further improvement in the labor sector after upbeat non-farm payrolls figures last Friday. Continuing claims will also be out at 12:30 GMT.
Friday April 8
Finally, unemployment data for the Swiss economy will be released at 07:45 GMT as forecasts are in favor of a decline to 3.4% in March from the prior 3.6%, while the seasonally adjusted reading will inch down to 3.3% from the previous 3.4%, according to median estimates. The improvement in unemployment data may take the pair lower as it will provide strong clues that the Swiss economy is on the right track.
Originally posted here
