By FXEmpire.com
USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 16, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)
The USD/CNY is trading at 6.2982 down 0.0076. China today released numerous economic data reports. Most showed an ongoing slowdown in the Chinese economy.
China’s economic growth fell to its lowest level in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2012 amid weak trade and lending controls.
The government reported on Friday the world’s second-largest economy grew by 8.1 per cent in the three months ending in March, its weakest expansion since the second quarter of 2009.
China’s growth has slowed steadily since mid-2010 as global demand for its exports weakened and the Beijing government tightened lending and investment curbs to cool an overheated economy and politically dangerous inflation.
This negative data offset the disappointing jobs reports in the US, but should still continue to weaken the Chinese currency.
Economic Reports for April 12-13, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
SEK |
Swedish CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
|
|
EUR |
Dutch Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.90% |
0.80% |
||
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
||||
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.8B |
-7.7B |
-7.9B |
|
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
EUR |
Portuguese CPI (MoM) |
1.20% |
0.10% |
||
|
EUR |
Greek Unemployment Rate |
21.80% |
21.20% |
||
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
Trade Balance |
0.3B |
2.0B |
2.0B |
||
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-46.0B |
-52.0B |
-52.5B |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
380K |
355K |
367K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3251K |
3335K |
3349K |
|
|
Apr. 13 |
KRW |
South Korean Interest Rate Decision |
3.25% |
3.25% |
3.25% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
20.9% |
20.8% |
21.5% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese GDP (YoY) |
8.1% |
8.3% |
8.9% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
11.9% |
11.5% |
11.4% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
15.2% |
15.0% |
14.7% |
Economic Events for April 16, 2012
13:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6% 0.9%
Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.
13:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% 1.1%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 21.1 20.2
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.
14:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 101.0B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication
Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds
Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction
Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz
Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25
Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction
Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029
Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction
Originally posted here
