By FXEmpire.com
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 5, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)
The USD/JPY is trading at 82.71. The dollar was trading slightly lower against the yen on Wednesday; erasing earlier gains after the Federal Reserve said it was growing increasingly unlikely to roll out monetary stimulus programs to spur the economy, which sparked a global dollar rush.
In Asian trading on Wednesday, USD/JPY traded from a low of 82.63 and off a high of 82.94.
The pair sought to test support at 81.63, Tuesday’s low, and resistance at 83.30, Monday’s high.
The dollar soared upon release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes of its last meeting, which revealed voting members are increasingly inclined to forgo fresh monetary stimulus measures.
Since the recession and ensuing sluggish recovery, the Federal Reserve has swollen its balance sheet by well over 2 trillion USD via buying assets from banks like bonds in order to steer the economy away from deflationary contraction and closer towards growth and hiring.
Such moves weaken the dollar, and until recently, the Fed was mum on the need for more such measures, even refusing to rule them out until just prior to Asia’s opening on Wednesday, as the labor market remains weak.
Economic Events April 3, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
JPY |
Monetary Base (YoY) |
-0.2% |
12.6% |
11.3% |
|
JPY |
Average Cash Earnings (YoY) |
0.7% |
0.2% |
-0.9% |
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
4.25% |
4.25% |
4.25% |
|
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
|||
|
TRY |
Turkish CPI (MoM) |
0.41% |
0.59% |
0.56% |
|
TRY |
Turkish PPI (MoM) |
0.36% |
0.74% |
-0.09% |
|
GBP |
Construction PMI |
56.7 |
53.5 |
54.3 |
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
PPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
GBP |
10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction |
2.22% |
2.18% |
|
|
BRL |
Brazilian Industrial Production (YoY) |
-3.9% |
-5.8% |
-3.4% |
|
USD |
Redbook (MoM) |
0.70% |
0.50% |
|
|
USD |
New York NAPM |
551.80 |
543.10 |
|
|
USD |
Factory Orders (MoM) |
1.3% |
1.5% |
-1.1% |
|
USD |
Global Semiconductor Sales (MoM) |
-1.3% |
-2.7% |
Economic Events for April 5, 2012 that affect the AUD, NZD and the JPY
As the Easter holiday draws closer and with several Asian Markets closed mid week for local holidays volume is down and there are no economic events scheduled for the Asian Markets.
In the US we will see:
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 355K 359K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3350K 3340K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11
Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction
Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions
Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12
Originally posted here
