USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 27, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb 26 GMT

21:45 NZD Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

23:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY)

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY was trading at 80.38, the USD weakened as crude oil and gold prices continued to climb up but began to add strength during the Asian trading session. Positive economic data came from the US on Thursday, while Friday morning the CSPI in Japan reported below forecast.

Japan’s central-bank governor offered a reminder Thursday of the risks facing the nation’s banks from a concentration of Japanese government-bond holdings.

Japan’s banks have continued to pour money into government debt, despite near-record-low yields and the nation’s deteriorating fiscal conditions. But any sudden rise in interest rates could expose the banks to trillions of yen in losses, Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said in response to a lawmaker’s question at a parliamentary committee on the strong yen and deflation.

As the yen finally weakens against the dollar, Japan’s exporting manufacturers are sitting on potential operating-profit gains that could be worth billions of dollars

US unemployment data today showed the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,000.

February 23, 2012 (GMT) economic results actual v. forecast

TWD	Taiwanese Industrial Production (YoY)	-16.5%	-6.3%	-8.1%
HKD	Hong Kong Trade Balance	-8.9B	-25.0B	-48.9B
EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	109.6	108.8	108.3
EUR	German Current Assessment	117.5	116.5	116.3
EUR	German Business Expectations	102.3	102.0	100.9
EUR	Italian Consumer Confidence	94.2	90.0	91.8
GBP	BBA Mortgage Approvals	38.1K	37.3K	36.6K
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-3	-13	-16
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	351K	354K	351K
CAD	Corporate Profits (QoQ)	9.0%	-0.5%
USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3392K	3460K	3444K
USD	Bloomberg Consumer Confidence	-38.4	-39.8
USD	House Price Index (MoM)	0.7%	0.4%	0.7%
USD	Mass Layoffs	1.43K	1.38K
CAD	BoC Review
USD	Natural Gas Storage	-166B	-146B	-127B
USD	Crude Oil Inventories	1.6M	1.0M	-0.2M
USD	Gasoline Inventories	-0.6M	-0.3M	0.4M
CAD	BoC Gov Carney Speaks
VEF	Venezuelan Industrial Production (YoY)	4.8%	4.7%	5.7%
VEF	Venezuelan Retail Sales (YoY)	2.4%	13.3%	11.0%
KRW	South Korean Consumer Confidence	100	97	98
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
JPY	CSPI (YoY)	-0.2%	0.1%	0.1%

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 27-Mar 02 n/a UK Mini Tender

Feb 27 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Feb 27 10:30 Germany Eur 3.0bn Feb 2013 Bubill

Feb 27 11:00 Belgium OLO Auction

Feb 27 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on May 05

Feb 28 01:30 Japan Auctions 2Y JGBs

Feb 28 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 28 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Feb 28 15:30 UK Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07

Feb 29 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills

Feb 29 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01 09:30 Spain Bono auction

Mar 01 09:50 France OAT auction

Mar 01 10.30 UK Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

Originally posted here