By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
- Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY ended the week flat after the yen soared against the USD most of the week as movement is driven by broader market sentiment in the absence of domestic data. The JPY strength seen earlier this week has abated over the past two sessions, as market participants remain concerned about the BoJ given ongoing interventionist rhetoric. Next week’s GDP figures are expected to indicate an expansion in growth, although the y/y pace of expansion is likely to continue to contract. This week’s trade balance was disturbing to the markets.
Data released from China on Friday, was fairly negative and should have some affect on the yen in early trading this week. The yen has risen too quickly in risk aversion mode and is due for a correction. This might occur as soon as we have some clarity on Greece.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which cover the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins.
This week’s eco data actual v. forecast. This week it is important to look at all these major events and the compare the results. There were many major releases that affected the global markets not just local and regional.
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
7.4% |
3.1% |
-8.8% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
3 |
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
3.1% |
3.0% |
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
2.2% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
CAD |
Building Permits (MoM) |
4.7% |
-1.5% |
7.6% |
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-19% |
-10% |
-10% |
|
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-1.59B |
-1.40B |
-0.75B |
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
2.8% |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
|
CAD |
Housing Starts |
244.9K |
204.0K |
214.8K |
|
JPY |
Adjusted Current Account |
0.79T |
0.65T |
0.86T |
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
15.5K |
-5.5K |
44.0K |
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
4.9% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
18.40B |
8.50B |
5.35B |
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
|
GBP |
Mfg Production (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-2.6% |
-2.6% |
-2.3% |
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
325B |
325B |
325B |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.2% |
1.5% |
|
CAD |
Trade Balance |
0.4B |
1.0B |
0.3B |
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
-50.0B |
-45.4B |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
367K |
369K |
368K |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3229K |
3278K |
3290K |
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
59.1B |
30.0B |
-198.2B |
|
GBP |
Nat’l Consumer Confidence |
44 |
52 |
53 |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.4% |
3.3% |
3.6% |
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Invest |
20.2% |
20.5% |
20.9% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
9.3% |
12.0% |
11.9% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
14.1% |
15.2% |
15.2% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
-1.5% |
-1.0% |
1.7% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.2% |
1.9% |
5.6% |
|
EUR |
Portuguese CPI (MoM) |
0.30% |
1.20% |
|
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
58.2K |
7.0K |
82.3K |
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
|
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.1% |
2.8% |
|
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.9% |
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
77.8 |
76.2 |
76.4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY, CNY and USD
|
May 14 |
02:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
-2.5% |
|
|
May 16 |
01:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
-1.60% |
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
Wage Price Index (QoQ) |
1.0% |
||
|
23:45 |
NZD |
PPI Input (QoQ) |
0.5% |
||
|
May 17 |
00:50 |
JPY |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
|
05:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
Originally posted here
