By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technical’s with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
- Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY saw the JPY gain strength against the USD most of the week, as the dollar index declined most of the week, as investors shifted from greenbacks to gold. Markets remained in risk aversion mode.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jun 15, 2012 |
78.71 |
79.43 |
79.51 |
78.61 |
-0.91% |
|
Jun 14, 2012 |
79.43 |
79.38 |
79.48 |
79.16 |
0.06% |
|
Jun 13, 2012 |
79.38 |
79.53 |
79.74 |
79.30 |
-0.18% |
|
Jun 12, 2012 |
79.53 |
79.31 |
79.69 |
79.17 |
0.27% |
|
Jun 11, 2012 |
79.31 |
79.56 |
79.72 |
79.23 |
-0.31% |
The BoJ announced this week that they were holding rates and not introducing an new monetary policy at this time, waiting until after the Greek election. Fears are that the BoJ has been quietly intervening to try to keep the yen down, as it is difficult for manufacturers and exporters when the yen is so high.
This upcoming week will have Greece and Spain in center stage and might push the risk aversion theme of the markets to a heightened level
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 11 – 15 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 13 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
USD |
PPI m/m |
-1.0% |
-0.6% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
NZD |
Official Cash Rate |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
|
Jun 14 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
377K |
380K |
|
|
JPY |
Overnight Call Rate |
|
|
|
|
|
Jun 15 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
74.1 |
77.5 |
79.3 |
Historical:
Highest: 108.00 on Sep 19, 2008
Average: 87.08over this period
Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 18 |
Day 1 |
ALL |
G20 Meetings |
|
|
Jun 19 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.72M |
|
|
Day 2 |
ALL |
G20 Meetings |
||
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Current Account |
-2.76B |
|
|
Jun 20 |
16:30 |
USD |
FOMC Statement |
|
|
18:00 |
USD |
FOMC Economic Projections |
||
|
18:15 |
USD |
FOMC Press Conference |
||
|
22:45 |
NZD |
GDP q/q |
0.3% |
|
|
Jun 21 |
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.62M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-5.8 |
Click here to read USD/JPY Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
