By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
- Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY ended strongly this week as it was the winner in the battle against the USD, as risk aversion was still the overall sentiment. Markets shed all assets having any relationship to the eurozone. Japan had some positive results with their GDP and Industrial production exceeding forecast but earlier in the week the Tertiary Index was well below forecast. Markets hardly reacted to eco data this week; it was all about risk and Greece.
The Bank of Japan continues to warn speculators about pushing the yen and has put markets on notice that it will intervene if speculators try to control currency movements.
Major Economic Events for the week of May 14-18 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi
|
NZD |
Retail Sales (QoQ) |
-1.5% |
-0.5% |
1.8% |
|
NZD |
Core Retail Sales (QoQ) |
-2.5% |
0.3% |
2.3% |
|
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
0.3% |
-2.0% |
-2.5% |
|
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-0.6% |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
|
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
0.80% |
-1.60% |
|
|
AUD |
Wage Price Index (QoQ) |
0.9% |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
NZD |
PPI Input (QoQ) |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.5% |
|
JPY |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.0% |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
|
JPY |
GDP Price Index (YoY) |
-1.2% |
-1.4% |
-1.8% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.3% |
1.1% |
1.0% |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD,JPY,NZD and USD
|
May 22 |
3:00 |
NZD |
Inflation Expectations q/q |
2.5% |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.48M |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.62T |
|
|
May 23 |
0:00 |
AUD |
CB Leading Index m/m |
0.0% |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
MI Leading Index m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
TBD |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Statement |
||
|
TBD |
JPY |
Overnight Call Rate |
<0.10% |
|
|
TBD |
JPY |
BOJ Press Conference |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
328K |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Trade Balance |
134M |
|
|
May 24 |
2:00 |
NZD |
Annual Budget Release |
|
|
5:00 |
JPY |
BOJ Monthly Report |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-0.8% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-4.0% |
|
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI y/y |
-0.5% |
|
|
May 25 |
TBD |
ALL |
G8 Meetings |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 21 09:10 Norway
May 21 09:30 Germany
May 21 10:00 Belgium
May 22 08:30 Holland
May 22 08:30 Spain
May 22 17:00 US
May 23 09:10 Sweden
May 23 09:30 Germany
May 23 14:30 Sweden
May 23 17:00 US
May 24 15:30 Italy
May 24 17:00 US
May 25 15:30 Italy
Originally posted here
