The Dow remains stuck in a down trending channel and has found resistance at the RSI 60 level the past 3 attempts to break through. The 2nd chart I want you to focus on the relationship of the 3 indexes to the Keltner Channels and notice that they continue to trade below the middle and lower Keltner channel. That is bearish behavior and the last 3 days preceding a long holiday weekend does very little to give me the confidence to buy anything long here.
I do something a little different from what I usually do, where I attempt to show how you can use the ATR indicator combined with Bollinger Bands to anticipate large moves in the market. I think we have one coming but it’s too early to saw whether it’s going to be up or down. One has to give some weighting to the recent down move, but it’s not a given that it’s going to be down. Remember, we never want to be to firmly implanted in our beliefs of what the markets should do.
