Wesley Chapel, Florida, March 2, 2009 — May soft red winter wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade last Friday closed lower, near the session low, hit a fresh 2.5-month low, scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart and closed at a bearish weekly and monthly low close. Prices are also in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Indeed, the wheat market bears do have the solid near-term technical advantage and are looking for more on the downside in the near term. The next downside price objective for the powerful wheat market bears is to push and close May futures prices below major psychological support at $5.00 a bushel. Below that lies strong technical support at the contract low of $4.84 1/4, scored in December.
For the wheat market bulls to begin to regain some near-term upside technical momentum, they would have to push and close May futures prices back above solid trend-line and flat-line technical resistance at $5.45 a bushel.
“Seasonality” price studies do show wheat futures prices trending lower into the June timeframe.
The very important Intermarket analysis perspective provided by VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software (www.TraderTech.com) also suggests there will be more downside price action in May Chicago wheat futures in the near term.
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com)
VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool for which a trader can glean clues on potential near-term price trend changes or continuation of present trends. These near-term clues provided by VantagePoint can and do give a trader a key edge.
See on the VantagePoint daily bar chart for May wheat futures that the Predicted Medium Term Crossover study shows the blue predicted 4 day exponential moving average is below the actual black 10 day simple moving average close, which is a near-term bearish signal.
The Predicted Medium Term Crossover is the predicted 4 day exponential moving average of typical prices two days ahead (P4EMA+2) crosses above or below the actual 10 day simple moving average close (A10SMA).
Also see at the bottom of the daily chart for May wheat futures that VantagePoint’s Predicted Neural Index (PIndex) is presently reading 0.00, also suggesting downside price pressure in the near term. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “1.00,” indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “0.00,” indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days. The PIndex is a proprietary indicator that predicts whether or not a three-day simple moving average of the typical price will be higher or lower two days in the future than it is today. The Predicted Neural Index compares two three-day moving averages to one another – today’s actual three-day moving average with a predicted three-day moving average.
To see more FREE recent market predictions for wheat go here!
