Wesley Chapel, Florida, November 10, 2008 — Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell last Friday to a fresh 21-month low of $59.97 a barrel, basis the nearby December contract, amid a global economic slowdown that has significantly reduced demand prospects for energy, including crude oil.
Weakening worldwide economies have driven crude oil prices sharply lower the last four months. Crude oil futures prices have lost over half their value since scoring a new all-time record high above $147 a barrel in early July.
Given the specter of a worldwide economic recession and the negative impact on oil prices, crude oil futures traders have taken their cues from the U.S. stock market recently. Big down days in the stock market last week produced a decline of around $10 a barrel in December crude oil, from last week’s high of $71.77.
From a technical chart perspective, crude oil prices remain firmly entrenched in a four-month-old downtrend from the early July high. Serious technical chart damage continues to be inflicted as price action the past month has seen nearby crude oil futures drop below key technical and psychological support levels of $80, $70 and just this week below $60 a barrel. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push nearby crude oil futures prices below major psychological support at $50 a barrel. Importantly, there are no early technical clues to suggest the downtrend in crude oil prices is close to ending.
VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software also corroborates the path of least resistance for December crude oil remains to the downside. VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool that employs intermarket analysis to forecast near-term price trends. Intermarket analysis is the study of how markets are inter-related and impact each other’s daily price moves.
Source: VantagePoint Trading Software (www.tradertech.com)
Veteran traders know the significance of intermarket analysis. In fact, crude oil has been and remains a key “outside market” that many other markets track closely. This is a prime example of the importance of intermarket analysis. Remember, too, that crude oil has been following the U.S. stock market – still another example of the power of intermarket relationships.
The VantagePoint daily bar chart for December crude oil futures shows that the predicted 4-day exponential moving average of typical prices two days ahead (blue line) is presently just crossing below the actual 10-day simple moving average of the close (black line), which is a bearish moving average crossover indication.
Also note on the daily chart for December crude oil that VantagePoint’s Predicted Neural Index is presently reading 0.00, suggesting near-term downside price pressure. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 1.00, indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 0.00, indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.
About Market Technologies, LLC
Headquartered in Tampa Bay since its founding in 1979 by Louis B. Mendelsohn, with trading software customers in over 90 countries worldwide, Market Technologies is a fast growing, Inc. 500, company and recognized world leader in market forecasting. Market Technologies researches and develops proprietary trend forecasting and market timing technologies that utilize artificial intelligence applied to intermarket and hurricaneomic analysis, in order to forecast various commodity and financial markets throughout the world. These presently include, but are not limited to, stocks, stock indexes, ETFs, energies, interest rates, currencies, metals, grains, meats, softs and Forex, covering over 600 world markets.
