S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,332.87) rose 0.46 points or 0.03% on Monday to close at its highest level in 6 weeks. Nasdaq Composite closed 0.01% lower. Trading volume fell 26% on the NYSE to its lowest level of the year. On the Nasdaq, volume fell 19%. Volume indicators continue to lag price indicators: volume has remain at low levels as price rebounded from its low of 3/16/11, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. The short-term, 13-day trend obviously has been up, but that minor trend is overbought and losing upside momentum. The SPX and other large cap indexes failed to close above closing price highs of the previous 2-years and, therefore, did not confirm Monday’s Dow Theory signal…
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 4/4/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years.
Industrial SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 12-year highs and remains bullish.
Technology SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 13-month lows and remains bearish.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above all-time highs, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil price rose above 2-year highs, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Silver rose above previous 31-year highs, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.84% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.17% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
0.42% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.59% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
1.35% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.83% , ZION , ZIONS
2.03% , TYC , TYCO INTL
2.12% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.77% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
0.88% , MDP , MEREDITH
1.78% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
1.50% , MBI , MBIA
0.77% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
0.61% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.21% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.70% , ACE , ACE
0.30% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
1.26% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.70% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
1.24% , WAT , WATERS
0.54% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.90% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
1.32% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
0.23% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.54% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
0.79% , PFE , PFIZER
1.61% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
1.42% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.58% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
0.22% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
0.34% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
0.73% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
1.32% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.23% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-4.69% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.03% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-5.19% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-4.09% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-4.05% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.66% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-2.89% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.21% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-1.94% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.20% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-0.78% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-2.50% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
-1.95% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-3.11% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-1.85% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.84% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-1.33% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-0.47% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.12% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
-0.45% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-1.35% , TLAB , TELLABS
-0.10% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.50% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-2.31% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.96% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-1.69% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
-0.26% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-2.00% , EMC , EMC
-3.57% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.81% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.56% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-0.70% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs on 3/30/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year closing price highs on 3/30/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 76.99, 2.90, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 83.27 and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/4/11 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 4/1/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 38.22, 39.02, and 39.97.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 2-month highs on 4/4/11 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 4/4/11 and remains bullish. Support 38.06, 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 39.64, 40.83 and 41.06.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) appears to be in a 6-week trading range and remains neutral. Absolute price also remains neutral. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.58, 40.02, 40.13, and 40.70.
Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 13-month lows on 4/4/11. The Ratio gave a clear bearish signal on 3/22/11 when the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK fell below 14-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 26.66, 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral. Support 32.57, 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 33.55 and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below 3-month lows on 3/31/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 10-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.79, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.51, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral. The Ratio is close to turning bearish again, however. Absolute price is bullish. Support 29.87, 28.71, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.15 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/25/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 3-month lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 30.74, 30.53, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.89, 33.00, 34.89, and 36.24.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been rising since making a low on 2/22/11. The trend is technically neutral, with 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 11-month lows on 3/16/11, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio is neutral between is 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows on 4/1/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose further above all-time highs on 4/4/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose further above all-time highs on 4/1/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 4/4/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 102.70, 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 108.46, 110.30, 111.34, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.
Gold nearest futures contract price has been consolidating gains since making a high at 1450 on 3/24/11. Support 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1450.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/30/11 and, therefore, was upgraded from bearish to neutral.
Silver nearest futures contract price rose above previous 31-year highs on 4/4/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 37.08, 36.43, 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 39.80, 40.50, and 50.35.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs on 4/4/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 10-day lows on 4/1/11, confirming a bearish short-term trend. Copper appears to be in an intermediate-term downside correction since peaking at 4.6575 on 2/15/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.212, 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose slightly on 4/4/11. Both the short-term trend and the larger 6-week trend appear uncertain. Support 119.11, 118.05, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 120.31, 122.08, 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been stuck in a neutral trading range most of the time since peaking on 2/8/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10. This rising Relative Strength Ratio reflects fixed-income investors’ preference for inflation-protected TIPs over the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price closed slightly higher on 4/4/11. The short-term trend appears neutral–but looks like it could turn weak in days ahead. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 75.885, 75.505, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 76.87, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 51.6% Bulls versus 23.1% Bears as of 3/30/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio fell to 2.23, down from 2.26 the previous week, and now stands at its lowest level since November 2010. The Ratio also is down from peaks of 3.00 on 1/12/11, down from 3.06 on 4/21/10, and down from 3.36 on 1/13/10. No trend lasts forever, and so stock market newsletter advisors are gradually growing more cautious as the bull market matures. The Ratio’s 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index fell below its 6-week range on 4/1/11, hitting 16.44 intraday, and again confirming a return to bullish complacency. This follows a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. Fear was short-lived. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 4/4/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,332.87) rose 0.46 points or 0.03% on Monday to close at its highest level in 6 weeks. Nasdaq Composite closed 0.01% lower. Trading volume fell 26% on the NYSE to its lowest level of the year. On the Nasdaq, volume fell 19%. Volume indicators continue to lag price indicators: volume has remain at low levels as price rebounded from its low of 3/16/11, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. The short-term, 13-day trend obviously has been up, but that minor trend is overbought and losing upside momentum.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
1337.85, high of 4/1/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1323.74, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1305.26, low of 3/29/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.43% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.49% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.95% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.94% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.92% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.89% China 25 iS, FXI
1.53% India PS, PIN
1.42% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.41% Russia MV, RSX
1.35% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.14% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.98% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.94% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.92% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.91% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.85% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.85% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.79% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.75% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.73% Singapore Index, EWS
0.72% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.71% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.65% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.61% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.60% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.59% Italy Index, EWI
0.55% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.52% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.49% Dividend International, PID
0.48% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.47% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.45% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.45% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.44% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.43% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.43% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.42% Belgium Index, EWK
0.42% European VIPERs, VGK
0.41% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.40% Spain Index, EWP
0.40% Global 100, IOO
0.39% South Africa Index, EZA
0.38% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.37% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.36% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.33% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.30% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.29% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.29% Water Resources, PHO
0.29% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.26% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.26% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.26% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.25% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.24% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.23% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.23% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.23% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.23% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.23% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.22% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.22% Energy Global, IXC
0.21% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.21% Sweden Index, EWD
0.21% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.21% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.21% Canada Index, EWC
0.20% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.20% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.19% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.18% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.17% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.16% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.15% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.15% Germany Index, EWG
0.15% France Index, EWQ
0.14% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.14% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.13% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.13% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.13% EAFE Index, EFA
0.13% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.13% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.13% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.13% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.11% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.11% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.10% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.09% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.09% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.09% Energy DJ, IYE
0.09% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.09% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.08% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.08% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.08% Mexico Index, EWW
0.08% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.07% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.07% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.06% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.06% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.06% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.05% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.05% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.05% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.05% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.04% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.02% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.01% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.04% Austria Index, EWO
-0.05% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.05% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.06% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.07% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.08% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.09% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.11% Australia Index, EWA
-0.14% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.16% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.33% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.35% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.37% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.44% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.49% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.55% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.62% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.70% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.71% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.72% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.78% Networking, IGN
-0.89% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.36% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.40% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
