Today’s column is about volume and how it may not matter now but will in the future. Here is a chart that I chose not to include in it. You will definitely have to click on it to see the whole thing.
What we see here is a chart starting in September 2001 although you cannot see that far back. Why September 2001? It was the last time the 50-day average of NYSE volume was as low is it is now.
I ran a regression line from there to the peak of 50-day volume in the summer of 2007. And then another from the peak to today.
How does that fit with a bear and bull cycle we have seen? Beats me. But don’t let anyone tell you volume is not falling. Either all the volume has moved to off-exchange areas or the heyday of the stock market is on the wane setting up a fall.
Note – Volume was indeed exaggerated in September 2001 (9/11) so the actual peak may have been in June 2006.