Vulnerable to Further Downside Risk

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,295.11) plunged 1.89% on Thursday to its lowest level in more than 5 weeks. Volume rose to confirm the breakdown. SPX closed below its 50-day simple moving average, which is one of the most popular technical indicators many investors track. It appears clear that the stock market has resolved its recent sideways consolidation pattern with a downside trend signal. As I have been saying, “It still appears possible that unpredictable global uncertainties may cause the stock market to remain unsettled and vulnerable to further downside risk.” That cautious opinion still holds.

Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratios rose above multi-week highs, reflecting the relative safety of defensive stocks in down trending markets.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA, turning neutral.

Crude Oil, Silver, and Gold fell below multi-day lows, confirming short-term, minor shakeouts following recent sharp gains.

Copper fell further below 3-month lows, confirming a downside correction. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.05% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
9.93% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
3.10% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
4.28% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
4.26% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.86% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
3.70% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.58% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.16% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
3.76% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.90% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
3.69% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.81% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
3.02% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.85% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.82% , SWY , SAFEWAY
1.68% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.19% , MCD , MCDONALDS
0.73% , ECL , ECOLAB
0.77% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.52% , NOVL , NOVELL
0.20% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
0.41% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
0.14% , COH , COACH
0.36% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.36% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
0.09% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.24% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.48% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-3.43% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-2.23% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-1.85% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-2.33% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-6.07% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-4.70% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-1.76% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-5.11% , KMX , CarMax
-1.85% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-1.78% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.57% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-0.83% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.98% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-2.04% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-5.25% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-3.93% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.42% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-2.06% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-3.67% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.77% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-5.84% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-1.75% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.64% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.54% , AON , AON
-3.92% , APA , APACHE
-1.63% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-3.77% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
-3.60% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
-2.22% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-4.17% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-3.50% , INTU , INTUIT
-2.50% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs on 2/23/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year closing price highs on 3/1/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 76.25, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 79.22, 83.27 and 91.42.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 3/10/11 and is now bullish. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 2/18/11, which was a bullish confirmation for the longer-term trend. Support 38.10, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 40.13 and 40.70.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) has underperformed mildly since peaking on 2/11/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 2/18/11 and remains bullish for the longer-term trend. Support 35.91, 35.87, 35.38, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 38.09, 39.02, and 39.97.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 3/10/11. The 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio appears to be heading toward a cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead, which could be a bearish signal. Absolute price of XLK fell below 6-weeks and remains neutral. Support 25.65, 25.53, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 26.66, 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) broke down below 11-week lows on 3/4/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF appears to be stuck in a trading range in recent weeks. Support 16.33, 16.19, 16.03, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 17.20 and 17.87.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 3/10/11 and remains neutral again. In addition, absolute price broke down below 11-week lows on 3/4/11 and remains neutral. Support 37.94, 37.24, 36.99, 36.54, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.83 and 41.06.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 3/10/11 and is now neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 3/9/11 and remains bullish. Support 29.27, 28.80, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.96 and 30.29.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 7 weeks on 3/10/11 and is now neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 3/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.87, 31.56, 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 33.23, 33.37, and 33.74.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) ) rose above the highs of the previous 7 weeks on 3/10/11 and is now neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 3/9/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.77, 31.49, 31.23, 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.89, 33.00, 34.89, and 36.24.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 2/22/11, again reconfirming its bearish trend. The ratio turned bearish from neutral on 2/4/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has been declining since 10/14/10 and remains bearish.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/20/11, turning neutral for the short term. Long term, the ratio rose above 10-year highs on 1/18/11, confirming a bullish Primary Tide uptrend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) turned bearish from neutral on 2/10/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA. Long term, the ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps had been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, from 3/29/2000 to 12/3/10.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/10/11, turning neutral. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 3/4/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. The ratio turned bullish from neutral on 2/7/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell down below 4-day lows on 3/10/11, confirming a short-term, minor shakeout following recent sharp gains. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 3/7/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 110.30, 111.34, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.

Gold nearest futures contract price fell down below 8-day lows on 3/10/11, confirming a short-term, minor shakeout following recent sharp gains. Gold rose above all-time highs on 3/7/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 1410.6, 1392.2, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1445.7.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) crossed below its 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages on 3/7/11 and 3/8/11, thereby turning bearish.

Silver nearest futures contract price fell down below 3-day lows on 3/10/11, confirming a short-term, minor shakeout following recent sharp gains. Silver rose above previous 31-year highs on 3/7/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 34.03, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 36.745 and 50.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs on 3/9/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.

Copper nearest futures contract price fell further below 3-month lows on 3/10/11, confirming a downside correction. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook. Support 4.0835, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.6495.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 5-day highs but still remains in the trading range in force since 12/15/10. The Bond is rated neutral. Support, 118.05, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 120.26, 122.08, 122.20, 123.21, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bullish, above 50- and 200-day SMAs. JNK absolute price also remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace since 8/24/10, compared to the more severe price drop of the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 7 trading days on 3/10/11, confirming a possible minor upside correction. USD fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 3/7/11, again reconfirming its preexisting intermediate-term downtrend. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 76.145, 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 52.2% Bulls versus 21.1% Bears as of 3/9/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at an above-average 2.47, down from 2.59 the previous week and down from 3.00 on 1/12/11. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.55, and the mean is 1.63.

VIX Fear Index has spent most of the past 5 months in the 16-22 zone, which is moderately below average. This suggests a mildly complacent attitude among options players. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 2/17/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.

On 3/1/11, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below the previous minor ripple lows set on 2/24/11 and below their closing price lows of the previous 3-weeks. This could suggest the possibility of a deeper and a more prolonged downside correction than any seen since August.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
1332.28, high of 3/3/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1275.10, low of 1/28/11
1271.26, low of 1/20/11
1261.70, low of 1/7/11
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.68% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.85% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.57% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.41% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.35% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.11% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.09% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.07% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.20% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.40% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.41% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.52% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.59% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.67% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.95% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.14% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.15% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.18% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.19% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.29% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.34% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.35% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.44% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.46% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.49% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.53% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.53% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.53% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.54% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.55% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.55% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.56% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.56% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.57% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.58% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.62% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.63% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.63% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.66% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.71% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.72% Dividend International, PID
-1.73% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.73% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.75% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.75% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.75% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.77% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.78% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.78% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.78% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.79% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.83% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.83% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.83% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.85% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.85% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.87% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.87% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.88% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.90% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.92% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.92% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.93% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.94% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.94% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.98% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.00% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.00% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.00% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.01% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.01% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.03% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.03% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.03% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.04% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.05% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.06% Global 100, IOO
-2.08% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.11% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.12% France Index, EWQ
-2.17% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.25% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.26% India PS, PIN
-2.26% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.30% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.30% Germany Index, EWG
-2.30% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.33% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.33% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.36% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.39% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.43% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.44% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.46% Japan Index, EWJ
-2.47% Networking, IGN
-2.47% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.48% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.49% Austria Index, EWO
-2.49% Water Resources, PHO
-2.50% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.51% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.52% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.53% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.53% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.54% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.55% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.57% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.57% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.58% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.58% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.60% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.62% Canada Index, EWC
-2.63% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.64% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.65% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.71% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.74% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.77% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.77% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.80% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.83% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.92% Spain Index, EWP
-2.93% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.96% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.00% Italy Index, EWI
-3.20% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.32% Taiwan Index, EWT
-3.32% Energy Global, IXC
-3.37% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.40% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.44% Australia Index, EWA
-3.51% Energy DJ, IYE
-3.62% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.63% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.64% Energy SPDR, XLE
-3.67% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-4.04% Russia MV, RSX
-5.93% Silver Miners Global X, SIL

Vulnerable to Further Downside Risk

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