The Federal Reserve has two basic problems right now. First, those running the Fed don’t know what they are doing. Second, they are doing a terrible job explaining this to the world.
Never have I seen such confusion in such an important institution. Never have I seen such inadequate leadership.
We have experienced the end of the Fed’s exit strategy, the effort undertaken by the Fed to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The exit strategy was designed to reduce the massive amounts of reserves pumped into the financial system by the Fed so that a period of hyper-inflation would not result. That exit strategy saw the Fed’s balance sheet grow by $331 billion over the twelve-month period the “exit” strategy was in place. Excess reserves held by the banking system rose by 38% during the same time period.
(http://seekingalpha.com/article/219717-federal-reserve-exit-watch-part-13)
One can only imagine what the end to the “exit strategy” will mean for bank reserves.
So, the Fed is now not going to let its balance sheet decline. As securities mature it will replace those securities with newly purchased securities. Impact is “net zero” on the balance sheet. If the economic recovery does not pick up steam or if it stalls or even declines, the Fed will purchase even more securities resulting in a further increase in bank reserves.
The reason for this change in focus? Well, the Fed has observed that the economy is moving more slowly than previously thought.
This is the Fed and the Fed leadership that continued to fight inflation as the housing market tanked and financial institutions balanced on the edge of collapse. The Fed seems to have totally missed the August 2007 meltdown of hedge funds failing to act until September 2008. Then, in the fall of 2008, Bernanke panicked and we got the infamous TARP legislation and an inconsistent mish-mash of bailouts that “saved the financial system.” (http://seekingalpha.com/article/106186-the-bailout-plan-did-bernanke-panic)
The Fed continues to frame its statements in terms of the weakness of the economy. However, in the statement released after the last meeting of the Open Market Committee the Fed admits that “Bank lending has continued to contract.”
This is all the attention the Fed gives to the banking system; the industry which the Fed supposedly knows intimately? And, this banking system has over $1.0 in excess reserves and is not lending? This banking system that has 775 banks on the FDIC’s list of problem banks? This banking system that Elizabeth Warren claims has 3,000 banks facing severe solvency problems? This banking system that has one out of every 2 banks in it in trouble?
The statements of the Fed just don’t coincide with what people and the financial markets see out in the real world.
There seems to be a significant disconnect between what is going on in the Federal Reserve and what is going on in the world. Damn those econometric models!!!
We got where we are because the Fed didn’t understand what was happening and then threw everything it could against the wall to see what would stick. I fear that we are experiencing déjà vu all over again!
