End of Rocky Mountain Movements for Long Time to Come ?
I have no idea where these forecasts are based but since I do remember I had gave a quick peek to the site for years and their accuracy had been notable.
The idea comes to my mind that all market are going to see decreasing volume and volitality all over decade to come. Death for options buyers, while flat strategy approach might come to be only one where one buck can be made. Not so far away taken idea, I have seen many traders to leaving from stockmarket in recent months and entering for FX market where even most tiny movement can be leveraged to the orbit. It´s possible past few years were just exceptional party to the one´s who traded patterns and dropped this disneyland club down. Since then, I haven´t see anyone who is able recognice any impulse behaviour to the upside anymore with core index products (eurodollar is exception) – every and each EW analyst is looking only corrective by nature approach.
Perhaps, just perhaps that SPX 666 was some supercycle W1 impulse down, meaning we could have 2-3 years (or ten!) W2 dead flat boring triple ZigZag corrective ahead – and if that´s the case we don´t go anywhere anymore before that W2 ends. Plus that ending could take serious of years to develop. How about a-b-c-d-e-f-g-h-i flat sideways or just one flat ABC ? Just perhaps below 1100 would be roof for that wave and just perhaps we don´t even see that number for many years. Market reminds me a bit this kind of situation allready.
So, how does it sound, 3 years sideways double or triple zigzag dead flat for SPX. Range 850-1050. That´s 20% road meaning in one 6 month period market could offer 10% movement for one direction. In 3 months that´s lofty 5% progressive directional movement. Sounds pretty dead number for me and massmurder for traders, perhaps some brokers too – while quick scalpers could enjoy situation, but best call propably for neutral options strategy department.
Perhaps someone will take a look LCTM case again, what these genius said about options expiration prices ;). At least that Oil is short if forecast will be accurate.
http://forecasts.org/index.htm
