For last week I’ve been neutral to slightly bearish as written (link) seven days ago. Until Tuesday the market showed a considerable pull-back (2.15%). Though the week showed a gain of 0.19%.
Setup for week 11 is bullish, hence I expect a higher close for the week. Furthermore I’m expecting a mild pull-back in the range of ~ 1%.
Price Action
[bullish]
- Direction: long term up, intermediate-term up
- Volatility: low, volatility expanding
- Trend-health: long-term trending environment (TSI >1.65) and intermediate trend conditions have weakened for twice over the last two weeks.
- Channel: intermediate channel position very low.
- OB/OS: RSI(5)>50 and 50 and
.
Seasonality
[bullish]
Seasonality is bullish for March (K) as well as for week 11 of the year (L).
.
Correlation
[bearish]
Correlation (M) among S&P500 members remains low (
Read more about my correlation related research here.
.
Breadth
[bullish]
Market Breadth (N) for top performers is at high absolute levels and decreased over the week, indicator value is at highest quartile. In the past this has been a highly positive setup.
.
Sectors
[bearish]
Sector setup (O) is bearish. The sector leaders are XLI (Industrials) and XLF (Financials).
.
Bonds
[positive]
RISK ON for the bond market (P). Generally this is positive for the stock market, especially with a combined setup of DIRECTION & VOLATILITY.
