EURUSD: Faces The 1.2992 Level, Prints A Morning Star Candle Pattern.
EURUSD- Continued failure ahead of the 1.2514 level, its swing low established on Feb 18’09 and the 1.2456 level, its Mar 04’09 high generated a sharp rally the past week pushing the pair to as high as 1.2957 before closing the week at 1.2929.EUR formed an evening star candle pattern(a bottom reversal signal).Significant resistance on a follow through to the upside lies at the 1.2992 level, its Feb 23’09 high ahead of the 1.3093 level, marking its Feb 09’09.The bigger and stronger resistance resides at the 1.3330 level, its Jan 27’09 high which also represents its broader range top between the 1.2330 and 1.3330 levels. We expect this level to cap additional upmove if seen. Support is initially located at the 1.2753 level, its Mar 06’09 high with a breach of there allowing further declines towards the 1.2514 level, its swing low established on Feb 18’09 and the 1.2456 level, its Mar 04’09. A decline below the latter level will mean a run towards the 1.2330 level, marking its late Oct’08 low. Its Weekly RSI remains positive in structure suggesting further strength. On the whole, while broader bias remains consolidative to range trading, immediate risk remains higher in the near term.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bullish
Short Term -Mixed
Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
Past Week: +2.31%
Past Month: -1.00%
Past Quarter: -1.05%
Year To Date: -7.46%
Weekly Range:
High -1.2957
Low -1.2556
Weekly Chart: EURUSD
GBPUSD:Closes Marginally Lower On Rejection Candle Formation.
GBPUSD-Although GBP declined to a low of 1.3655 level on Wednesday, price strength that followed on Thursday and Friday reversed almost all of those gains to close marginally lower at the end of the week at 1.4001.Having rejected lower prices and printed a hammer-like candle, risks exist for the pair to head further back up towards its Feb 02’09 low at 1.4052 and the 1.4137 level ,its Feb 12’09 low. This resistance levels are expected to reverse roles and turn the pair lower. Further out, the next resistance is located at the 1.4312 level, its Mar 02’09 high with more upside objectives seen at the its Jan 16’09/Feb 09’09 highs at 1.4981/86 and the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08’09 high. To the downside, its Mar 11’09 low at 1.3655 will be targeted at first and then its YTD low at 1.3504 level with a clearance of there resuming its longer term downtrend towards the 1.2856 level, its Sept’85 low. All in all, despite the present price hesitation, the pair still maintains its broader medium to longer bearishness.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Mixed
Short Term -Bearish
Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
Past Week: -0.50%
Past Month: -1.21%
Past Quarter: -17.94%
Year To Date: -4.31%
Weekly Range:
High -1.4I83
Low -1.3655
Weekly Chart: GBPUSD
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