4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 113 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Russia MV, RSX
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
96 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
95 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
94 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 12, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Russia MV, RSX
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
96 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
95 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
94 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
93 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
92 REIT Wilshire, RWR
91 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
91 Sweden Index, EWD
90 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
89 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
88 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
88 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
87 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
86 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
86 India Earnings WTree, EPI
85 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
84 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
83 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
83 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
82 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
81 Mexico Index, EWW
80 MidCap Russell, IWR
80 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
79 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
78 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
78 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
77 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
76 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
75 Microcap Russell, IWC
75 Latin Am 40, ILF
74 Australia Index, EWA
73 Industrial SPDR, XLI
72 Biotech SPDR, XBI
72 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
71 Brazil Index, EWZ
70 Malaysia Index, EWM
70 Technology DJ US, IYW
69 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
68 Canada Index, EWC
67 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
67 South Korea Index, EWY
66 South Africa Index, EZA
65 Networking, IGN
64 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
64 Financial Preferred, PGF
63 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
62 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
62 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
61 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
60 Growth VIPERs, VUG
59 Emerging Markets, EEM
59 India PS, PIN
58 Technology SPDR, XLK
57 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
57 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
56 Singapore Index, EWS
55 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
54 Dividend SPDR, SDY
54 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
53 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
52 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
51 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
51 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
50 Switzerland Index, EWL
49 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
49 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
48 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
47 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 Financials VIPERs, VFH
46 Materials SPDR, XLB
45 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
44 Financial DJ US, IYF
43 Hong Kong Index, EWH
43 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
42 Health Care SPDR, XLV
41 Value VIPERs, VTV
41 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
40 Dividend International, PID
39 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
38 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
38 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
37 Silver Trust iS, SLV
36 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
36 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
35 Netherlands Index, EWN
34 Financial SPDR, XLF
33 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
33 Financial Services DJ, IYG
32 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
31 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
30 Water Resources, PHO
30 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
29 Taiwan Index, EWT
28 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
28 Energy SPDR, XLE
27 Energy VIPERs, VDE
26 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
25 EAFE Index, EFA
25 Global 100, IOO
24 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
23 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
22 United Kingdom Index, EWU
22 Belgium Index, EWK
21 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
20 Japan Index, EWJ
20 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
19 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
18 Energy DJ, IYE
17 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
17 Energy Global, IXC
16 China 25 iS, FXI
15 France Index, EWQ
14 Bond, Corp, LQD
14 European VIPERs, VGK
13 Germany Index, EWG
12 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
12 EMU Europe Index, EZU
11 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
10 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
9 Bond, TIPS, TIP
9 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
8 Utilities SPDR, XLU
7 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
7 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
6 Commodity Tracking, DBC
5 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4 Austria Index, EWO
4 Spain Index, EWP
3 Italy Index, EWI
2 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
