4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 111 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
95 Russia MV, RSX
94 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
93 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 19, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
95 Russia MV, RSX
94 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
93 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
92 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
91 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
91 Mexico Index, EWW
90 South Africa Index, EZA
89 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
89 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
88 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
87 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
86 India Earnings WTree, EPI
86 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
85 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
84 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
84 Industrial SPDR, XLI
83 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
82 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
81 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
81 MidCap Russell, IWR
80 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
79 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
79 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
78 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
77 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
76 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
76 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
75 Sweden Index, EWD
74 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
74 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
73 Biotech SPDR, XBI
72 South Korea Index, EWY
71 Australia Index, EWA
71 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
70 Technology DJ US, IYW
69 Microcap Russell, IWC
69 Canada Index, EWC
68 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
67 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
66 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
66 India PS, PIN
65 Networking, IGN
64 Latin Am 40, ILF
64 Growth VIPERs, VUG
63 Financial Preferred, PGF
62 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
61 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
61 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
60 Malaysia Index, EWM
59 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
59 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
58 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
57 Singapore Index, EWS
56 Technology SPDR, XLK
56 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
55 Emerging Markets, EEM
54 Dividend SPDR, SDY
54 Financials VIPERs, VFH
53 Switzerland Index, EWL
52 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
51 Brazil Index, EWZ
51 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
50 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
49 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
49 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
48 Financial DJ US, IYF
47 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
46 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
46 Hong Kong Index, EWH
45 Health Care SPDR, XLV
44 Value VIPERs, VTV
44 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
43 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
42 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
41 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
41 Materials SPDR, XLB
40 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
39 Financial SPDR, XLF
39 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
38 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
37 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
36 Financial Services DJ, IYG
36 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
35 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
34 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
34 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
33 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
32 Taiwan Index, EWT
31 Silver Trust iS, SLV
31 Dividend International, PID
30 Water Resources, PHO
29 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
29 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
28 Global 100, IOO
27 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
26 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
26 Netherlands Index, EWN
25 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
24 EAFE Index, EFA
24 Japan Index, EWJ
23 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
22 Belgium Index, EWK
21 United Kingdom Index, EWU
21 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
20 Energy SPDR, XLE
19 Energy VIPERs, VDE
19 China 25 iS, FXI
18 Bond, Corp, LQD
17 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
16 Energy Global, IXC
16 Energy DJ, IYE
15 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
14 France Index, EWQ
14 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
13 European VIPERs, VGK
12 Germany Index, EWG
11 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
11 Bond, TIPS, TIP
10 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
9 Utilities SPDR, XLU
9 EMU Europe Index, EZU
8 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
7 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
6 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
6 Austria Index, EWO
5 Commodity Tracking, DBC
4 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4 Italy Index, EWI
3 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
2 Spain Index, EWP
1 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
