4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 112 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
94 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
93 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 26, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
94 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
93 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
92 Russia MV, RSX
91 India Earnings WTree, EPI
91 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
90 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
89 Mexico Index, EWW
89 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
88 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
87 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
86 Industrial SPDR, XLI
86 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
85 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
84 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
84 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
83 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
82 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
81 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
81 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
80 MidCap Russell, IWR
79 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
79 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
78 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
77 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
76 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
76 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
75 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
74 Technology DJ US, IYW
74 Microcap Russell, IWC
73 Australia Index, EWA
72 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
71 India PS, PIN
71 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
70 Sweden Index, EWD
69 Networking, IGN
69 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
68 Biotech SPDR, XBI
67 South Africa Index, EZA
66 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Malaysia Index, EWM
65 South Korea Index, EWY
64 Financials VIPERs, VFH
64 Growth VIPERs, VUG
63 Canada Index, EWC
62 Technology SPDR, XLK
61 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
61 Financial DJ US, IYF
60 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
59 Financial Preferred, PGF
59 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
58 Latin Am 40, ILF
57 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
56 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
56 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
55 Dividend SPDR, SDY
54 Financial SPDR, XLF
54 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
53 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
52 Financial Services DJ, IYG
51 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
51 Emerging Markets, EEM
50 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
49 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
49 Singapore Index, EWS
48 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
47 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
46 Materials SPDR, XLB
46 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
45 Hong Kong Index, EWH
44 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
44 Switzerland Index, EWL
43 Value VIPERs, VTV
42 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
41 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
41 Brazil Index, EWZ
40 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
39 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
39 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
38 Health Care SPDR, XLV
37 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
36 Water Resources, PHO
36 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
35 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
34 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
34 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
33 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
32 Silver Trust iS, SLV
31 Taiwan Index, EWT
31 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
30 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
29 Dividend International, PID
29 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
28 Global 100, IOO
27 Netherlands Index, EWN
26 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
26 Japan Index, EWJ
25 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
24 EAFE Index, EFA
24 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
23 United Kingdom Index, EWU
22 Belgium Index, EWK
21 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
21 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
20 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
19 China 25 iS, FXI
19 Germany Index, EWG
18 Bond, Corp, LQD
17 France Index, EWQ
16 European VIPERs, VGK
16 Energy VIPERs, VDE
15 Energy SPDR, XLE
14 Energy Global, IXC
14 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
13 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
12 EMU Europe Index, EZU
11 Bond, TIPS, TIP
11 Energy DJ, IYE
10 Austria Index, EWO
9 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
9 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
8 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
7 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
6 Utilities SPDR, XLU
6 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
5 Italy Index, EWI
4 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4 Commodity Tracking, DBC
3 Spain Index, EWP
2 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
