Wow! How time flies. Today, Thursday June 30, 2016 marked the midway point for the trading year. What a year it has been for Crude Oil. The low for the first half of the year came in February at 26.05. The ensuing 4 month rally took us to a high 0f 51.67 in June. Crude oil almost doubled its price in 4 months! Wow! Thursday’s trade saw Crude Oil trade in a tight range from 49.11 to 48.50 during the US session before an attempt at a rally into the settlement period failed at 49.30 as month end profit taking took over and the last 10 minutes of trading saw a wave of selling overtake Crude Oil. Crude collapsed at settlement trading from 49.30 all the way down to the low of the day at 48.17. Crude Oil settled at 48.33. Crude Oil didn’t do much after settlement and ended the day at 48.40. Crude Oil formed an inside day candle and a close below the 21 DMA (48.91). Trendline resistance is at 49.87. In my opinion a breakdown below the Thursday low of 48.17 could lead to a test of the 50 DMA at 47.57 and then trendline support at 45.79. I would sell a breakdown from the low and place stops in accordance with your account size and risk tolerance. For me to be a buyer, Crude Oil would have to break out above the trendline resistance level at 49.87 and successfully test it. This could lead to a test of the 51.67 high. If this occurs and you enter a trade, make sure you use a stop. Same stop rules apply.
High 49.62
Low 48.17
Last 48.40
Daily Pivots for 7/1/16:
|
R2 |
50.18 |
|
R1 |
49.29 |
|
PIVOT |
48.73 |
|
S1 |
47.84 |
|
S2 |
47.28 |
|
|
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Friday, July 1, at 2:30pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.
