1:30pm
I’ve been away most of the day working on other projects so my update today will be somewhat brief. We continued the rally early with some solid volume but have pulled back since, many attributing it to the President Obama speech. More often than not, when Obama speaks the market goes lower. For those momentum traders, that’s pertinent information which most already know as this trend is far from new.
In other news, we received some encouraging data points indicating Friday’s job reports may not be as bad as some have predicted. I’m still a believer that job reports will be ugly but potentially with a positive spin put on them from CNBC and elsewhere. This could be somewhat similar to the unemployment numbers which I wrote about a few weeks ago which did not have completely accurate analysis from major media outlets. I might miss some of the bullish move up, but I don’t want to add to too many larger cap longs until after more clarity on this job report. Contrary to what you hear elsewhere, I do not believe our economy has fully turned around and I predicted, along with others, that this year will be a consolidation year for the market. Take that for what it’s worth.
In portfolio news, Sirius XM (SIRI) made a very nice move up. For you loyal readers, you made some nice gains if you heeded my advice and didn’t panic yet bought around $.86/87. We are currently forming new support levels for a push over $1 again. Let’s hope this move is stronger and we can hold it for the necessary timeframe. If that is achieved, we will only increase the buying volume when those concerns about delisting are no longer relevant.
GoIP Global (GOIG) volume is drying up therefore I’m selling some of my trades into strength. While we can very well continue up on low volume, just like the market as a whole did the entire year of 2009, we also allow too much downside risk of shorts punishing us. I have nice gains that I want to lock in, yet a strong core position that I’m letting ride into the service launch and most likely much longer. My sells are small trades and do not change my long-term thesis at all, I am very bullish on GOIG. However, volatility is high in penny stocks so I will not try to fight it and predict only positive days with little chance of a dip. I expect many dips no matter how positive the news is in the future. Far too many get caught up in the idea of becoming filthy rich with just buying a stock and holding it as if it will never go down. Go to any forum on most any stock surrounded with some good news and you will see the same story over and over again. “This stock is not like any other stock.” How often have you heard something like that? While some will be lucky and the stock will go up because the sun is shining on them that day, it is far from a solid strategy that can be utilized long-term. The market is roughly 50% luck and anyone who tells you otherwise I would keep at bay. If it wasn’t 50% luck, we’d see many more billionaires these days in one of the most exciting industries today. If it wasn’t 50% luck, you wouldn’t be reading my articles right now.
It is time for me to get back to the market. If you’ve been in chat today, you’d see the various stock trades going on that I don’t discuss in-depth in my articles. For that information, you need to join our active chat so I suggest you get to it, link above. Thanks for reading Kudrna’s Stock Market Blog and make sure you post my links around if you enjoy it. Good luck out there.
Mike
At the time of publication, Kudrna was Long SIRI and GOIG but positions can change at any time.
