The Commodity Specialist view – Wheat prices have continued to drift back this year, recently approaching last year’s low. In the Commodity Specialist Guide we have stuck to a bearish outlook, but it is now useful to consider what would provide a s/term bull trigger.
- WHEAT – WEEKLY CONTINUATION CHART:
On this long term chart a 23.6% recovery level previously provided clear resistance, and we still look for this retracement to be exceeded in order to adopt a medium term bull outlook.
Recent weakness has stopped some way short of the 425.25 Sep-09 low, the 455.00 Dec-08 low offering first support here.
- WHEAT DAILY CHART – MAY-10:
On the front month chart last year’s low came in at 472.00, support trying to form above this currently.
So far resistance has emerged from the 527.75 17-Dec low, with a s/term bear channel top running below this at 520 now.
A break/close above this would be an initial bull signal.
However, there is higher 540 resistance from a rising return line which must be overcome for bull confirmation, and warns against chasing price up here.
We can then target towards the 587 Jan high initially (near to a
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