The Commodity Specialist view – Wheat prices have continued to drift back this year, recently approaching last year’s low. In the Commodity Specialist Guide we have stuck to a bearish outlook, but it is now useful to consider what would provide a s/term bull trigger.

    On this long term chart a 23.6% recovery level previously provided clear resistance, and we still look for this retracement to be exceeded in order to adopt a medium term bull outlook.
    Recent weakness has stopped some way short of the 425.25 Sep-09 low, the 455.00 Dec-08 low offering first support here.
    On the front month chart last year’s low came in at 472.00, support trying to form above this currently.
    So far resistance has emerged from the 527.75 17-Dec low, with a s/term bear channel top running below this at 520 now.
    A break/close above this would be an initial bull signal.
    However, there is higher 540 resistance from a rising return line which must be overcome for bull confirmation, and warns against chasing price up here.
    We can then target towards the 587 Jan high initially (near to a

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