I did not start blogging in order to start a media career, but sometimes the media finds its way to my door. I received a call today from a reporter for one of the major television networks, and after talking a while, she asked me, “What big stories aren’t being told? Some of my best stories some from asking this question.” I told her I needed to think, and would e-mail her back on the topic. I decided I would review my last month of posts to look for out-of-consensus ideas, and I came up with these:
- China is overstimulating businesses through loans and they are buying up commodities that they don’t need now, leading to a possible correction in commodity prices.
- Western European banks are in trouble because of loans to Eastern European nations denominated in Euros. With the rise in the Euro, defaults are likely.
- Water shortages in China and India.
- Most entities that the US Government has bailed out will have stocks that are zero eventually — GM, Chrysler, AIG, and maybe Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For an opposing opinion on the GSEs, read the intelligent John Hempton at Bronte Capital.
- With dud residential mortgage loans, modifications don’t work well unless there is a forgiveness of some of the principal.
- The foreign funding base of the US is getting shorter in maturity — could this be a sign of trouble? Is there a lack of confidence?
- If we marked the value of commercial real estate loans to market for banks, using data from the CMBS market, some banks would be insolvent.
That’s all for me, or now. Now, I don’t watch television, listen to radio much, and I don’t subscribe to anything aside from the WSJ. I don’t see everything. That is why I am asking my clever readers to answer the question that the reporter asked me — what significant economic stories aren’t being told? These can be small issues as well as big issues. Please let me know in the comments below. Thanks.
