Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient
The market shrugged off the serious instability in the Middle East today, after tanking on those fears on Friday. The Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 were all up, with the S&P 500 up the most, +0.77%.
But the fear is still there, as well it should be. VIX – the indicator that monitors the level of investor fears — jumped 24% on Friday, but fell back a bit today. The VXX – the forward-looking fear indicator which tracks the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures — rose almost 10% on Friday and is holding at that level.
This reflects the turmoil in Egypt and the fear of a “rolling awakening” in the Middle East with other counties attempting to overthrow their leaders. Add to that the twin nuclear threats of Iran and Korea and the continuing instability of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and you have just cause for alarm.
The fear, of course, is not just of rioting in the streets, but of serious economic consequences, namely unstable oil and other commodity prices. Today, Energy and Basic Industries — fueled by rising energy and materials prices — drove the market. This increases the fear that the Fed will dip into its inflation-fighting arsenal and raise interest rates.
Of course, rising interest rates, while normally not good for the market, may drive money from the bond market into equities, as bonds are much more adversely affected by rising interest rates. Keep in mind, too, the extreme liquidity within the current corporate market. I believe it to be the most liquid corporate environment we’ve had in recent memory.
Earnings & Economic Reports. Domestically, there was turbulence in the earnings reports released last week, as some major companies met expectations — Netflix (NFLX), Dupont (DD) and Caterpillar (CAT) — while others disappointed — Amazon.com (AMZN), Ford (F) and American Express (AXP). This disparity demonstrates the economic uncertainties that face companies even in the same industry.
Economically, the recent reports were a mish-mash of positive and negative. Fourth quarter GDP accelerated to +3.2% (just a tiny bit less than expected) and new home sales jumped +18% in December with pending home sales rising a modest +2%. Durable goods, on the other hand, were downright ugly (losing -2.5% when an increase of +1.5% was expected). And initial jobless claims shot back up to 454,000 — a…
