The Commodity Specialist view – The recent downward phase in Wheat (CBOT) began after the Nov-09 high, but evidence has been emerging of a loss of bear interest and we are now on the lookout for a recovery attempt.
- MONTHLY CHART – CONTINUATION:
After the collapse in prices in 2008 the downmove slowed after testing the 76.4% retracement of the whole 1999-2008 upmove, also finding support from the lower 434 2002 high. - DAILY CHART – JUL-10:
In the Commodity Specialist Guide we have been noting the apparent 5-wave structure from Nov-09 high – now completed there is a good chance for a recovery phase.
From the early Apr low the recovery has violated the channel top projection and 23.6%retracement level – an initial bull signal, subsequent pullback notwithstanding.
We had suggested in the Guide that buyers on dips, above 480, would favour initial stops below the 460.50 low, probably targeting modest profits.
Next resistance of interest is the Dec 539.00 low, which was effective in Feb. However, there would be later scope to the higher 563 area, 61.8% pullback and current position of an old rising return line.
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