Wheat is up again in overnight activity (currently up 2%) as analysts continue to figure in suboptimal crop conditions leading to a shorter US winter crop; in addition, the cooler pattern has been delaying spring plantings, adding to the uncertainty surrounding adequate supplies.  In yesterday’s NASS crop progress report, US spring wheat plantings were only 5% complete as of April 17th, compared to 18% for the same date last year and the 5 year average of 12%.  Further, according to the most recent crop surveys, US winter wheat conditions in the 18 major growing states have 38% of their current crop classified as either poor or very poor, compared to only 6% for this time in 2010.  Weather Trends noted in our report to clients issued yesterday that the current week will continue to produce unfavorable conditions, before things start to improve over the last week in April.

As a result of the poor US weather, many crop analysts are calling for significant yield reductions (below 40 bu/acre), which will curtail supply from the world’s largest exporting country.