The September/October period has gained a reputation for volatility and adverse stock market moves including some memorable market crashes. But that’s far from the case this year. In fact, recent activity seems downright dull.
A year ago, in the wake of Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG and others, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of investor fear and anxiety, was on its way to near 90 as many stocks were plummeting. Today VIX is around 23 and has been docile for the better part of four months.
As the major stock indexes grind steadily higher and VIX has reverted to pre-September 2008 levels, one can hardly help but wonder whether there isn’t some new financial crisis lurking out there while the market is acting as it often does during the dog days of summer.
Beware of the sleeping dog.
