Where does the market go from here? Where will it be in September, October, November, and December of 2009?

Ed from Psychicburg


Ed, let me see … Before I answer you specifically, I want to lay out a few other predictions.

  1. We will land a human on Mars on December 10, 2014.
  2. Both Russia and China will destroy their nuclear arsenals on August 8, 2017.
  3. IBM will announce record second quarter profits on March 5, 2011.
  4. It will rain somewhere, sometime in 2010.
  5. The sky will remain blue when there are no clouds, smoke, or fog throughout the rest of this century.

Now to the market …

In September, the market will move up and down; however, in between the up and down, it will move sideways. October will bring more of the same, except that the up and down will seem less like up and down and more like sideways. Get ready for November, though. The Thanksgiving month will bring a possible half-day closure of the markets on the Wednesday before the fourth Thursday of the month, and the markets will close completely on the Friday after the fourth Thursday of the month. December is usually up or down in volume, so it is hard to predict, but I will go out on a limb and say that we will see market movement in December. Furthermore, I predict thousands of markets will see trades, and millions of trades will go through.

All kidding aside, as I have said to the point of boring, if you are looking for someone, anyone, to accurately predict market direction, stop trading immediately. No one knows the future of the markets. However, I assume the intent of your question is to ask my opinion on the future of the markets, so you can add that to your other information in order to form your own conclusion. Since I can read big-vision tea leaves as well as anyone, here’s my guess …  

We will see choppy movement in the markets over the next four months, but with the improving economic news and indicators, more than a few of the trillions on the sidelines will continue to trickle into the market providing a gentle uphill slope on the charts. Bernanke will keep rates low, even though commodities (oil) will rise higher. This will keep money (credit) flowing, meaning higher corporate profits. Consumers will spend more, but not as much as truly needed. Expect some corrections, but at the end of the year, the markets will be 5-10% higher than they are today. After that … 

Trade in the day; invest in your life …

Trader Ed