THE FUTURES MARKET SUMMARY
WHITEHALL LV INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FUTURES MARKET SUMMARY 02/01/10
SUMMARY OF UPCOMING DATA 02/02/10
8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT
US 3, 10,&30 YEAR AUCTION ANNOUCEMENTS
10:00 AM- ISM NON MFG INDEX (51.0)
10:30 AM EIA INVENTORY FIGURES (CRUDE, PRODUCTS)
DATA RESULTS 02/01/10
10:00 AM PENDING HOME SALES INDEX (96.0/+1.0%)
US DEBT REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
US TREASURIES rebounded slightly in another quiet session as the long end of the yield curve continues to trade with little sense of direction. While the focus of market activity appears to have moved back toward equities, based on the strong recovery posted on Tuesday, traders may be awaiting a sign from this week’s employment data to determine the momentum of fiscal stimulus on focus from job creation, which would likely call for continued levels of high deficit spending. In addition, the markets will receive additional data on debt supply on Wednesday when the amounts for the US 3, 10, and 30 year debt auctions will be announced.
Treasuries also garnered support from a report on pending home sales which offered few surprises as well as testimony from US Treasury Geithner stating that the government will receive full payback from financial institutions for funds loaned out during the financial crisis. Further moves higher in Treasury Prices may be predicated on whether the return of those funds will have the opportunity to be applied toward repairing the government’s balance sheet or if the funds will simply be swallowed up by a revamped deficit spending program.
Technically, March 30 year futures are likely to continue to range trade, with a narrowing channel occurring. This could lead to an eventual breakout which is expected to have an initial downside bias. In the near term, expect the contract to find a solid support level at 117-26, with 119-08 setting up as a significant resistance level.
US EQUITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
Stocks rose for a second session on continued upbeat earnings releases and continued follow through from Monday’s better than expected reading on manufacturing. Currently, it appears that the major indices are undertaking a technical rebound from last week’s dramatic sell off and that attempts to test the boundaries of a developing range might be in effect. Early month allocation of institutional funds and bargain hunting may being contributing to the rebounds in equity prices.
Commodity and financial stocks were among the best performing sectors today as a cautious feeling of stability continues to support notions of global expansion. A dramatic rebound in commodity and energy prices also helped to support stocks on Tuesday. The cry of “Buy American” from the auto sector also helped to support buyer sentiment as Ford and GM posted better than expected sales, beating out Toyota which had been under pressure from technical problems with the gas pedals in many of its auto models. Sales at Ford and GM were up 25% and 14% respectively. How much positive or negative sentiment from the developing employment picture which unfolds this week could bring a climax to this week’s volatile market activity.
Technically, March S&P futures remain range bound, as the 1103.00 resistance level held on Tuesday. Resistance levels at 1106.00 and 1108.00 should pose some difficulty to breach. However if upside momentum can remain intact, the contract could post a recovery to the 1118.00 level. Initial support resets at 1087.80, with 1075.00 setting up as a significant level end of the developing trading range.
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US DEBT FUTURES |
OPEN |
HIGH |
LOW |
CHANGE |
|
|
US H0 (US 30 YRS) |
118-06 |
118-14 |
117-29 |
118-13 |
+8/32nds |
|
SP H0 (S&P 500) |
1087.80 |
1101.50 |
1084.30 |
1097.20 |
+10.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
PLEASE VOICE YOUR MARKET OPINIONS, THOUGHTS, AND QUESTIONS. EMAIL TO RICH@BINVSTGRP.COM
Additional Information can be found at WWW.WHITEHALLVEGAS.COM
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Whitehall Investment Management, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
