Okay, let me first get off my Wow! for the day – did I say “listless” yesterday? Did I really use that word? Yes, I did use that word and yes I suggested the market would pick up today, but I also said, “… we should expect it to perk up tomorrow, unless, of course, the good news is bad news thing is still in play.” Well, it appears the good news bad news thing is still in play. If the general chatter today is credible, the market is going negative in the face of more positive global economic data because it fears the Fed will announce at its next meeting tapering will begin, which, by the way, is the 17th and 18th of this month.
It is true the market is going off on the fear the Fed will soon begin pulling back on its QE, but just because the market is doing this, it does not mean the sky is falling. It is nonsense, but it is not bad nonsense. The market needs to rebalance and, as it is most often, the market chooses these moments of fear to do what it needs to do. The market needs a slight correction, and to savvy market players, a correction means opportunity. Despite the gloom and doom crowd, what we are seeing as the market pulls back is a positioning for further upward movement. Buyers are waiting with cash in hand to pick up the deals.
I don’t follow Jim Cramer. As I have written, I like to stay “in touch” with the celebrity analysts because I sometimes find their insight to be good, as well as entertaining. Yesterday, Cramer said something insightful.
- Somehow, even though Black Friday obviously can’t have been as strong as Black Fridays of the past because stores opened on Thanksgiving, the press has pronounced the holiday season a bust.
This is true – the breathless media has spent the last two days dissing the retail sales from the holiday weekend, just as they have done for the past few years.
- Somehow, despite a wholesale shift in spending to online, we don’t bother to account for it in holiday spending. Somehow we have decided that the consumer is, once again, tapped out – and, no matter how many times the consumer hasn’t actually been tapped out, the press has ruled she has been.
As we see, the beat goes on, as does Cramer. His rant then takes on a new focus, a target that I have enjoyed shooting at for some time.
- Every time I see Marc Faber of Gloom, Doom and Boom fame, I am reminded that this cohort never dies – these people who consistently think that this is the market’s last breath. There’s always bear fodder, so we might as well trot out this cynic and let him ramble on about the world’s end. It’s a gloomy job, and someone has to do it.
Cramer then follows the above with a conclusion I have spouted time and time again – ultimately, the market cares about one thing – profit.
- Lost in all of this gloom, doom and kaboom is, alas, the kaboom, because we keep getting some pretty darned good earnings. This is something that never seems to fit into the calculus of Faber and the others who get ginned up when we need to verify how bogus the whole market rally is.
Finally, Cramer gives the advice I just gave in the opening of today’s piece. It is worth paying attention to because it will make you some money.
- So let’s see what this extended market brings in this new month. To me it will bring price breaks that will be quickly met by buying. That’s simply because we only have five more shopping weeks until those who subscribe to the Gloom and Doom but not the Boom start getting their assets stripped away, as surely as a mine’s are stripped on pretty much a daily basis.
Okay, so the writing is not elegant (he writes as he speaks), but the content is good and spot on – once the fear passes, the buyers will come in to take the market even higher, much higher. Simply, again, it is all about earnings and earnings come from commerce and right now, both US and global commerce are still moving forward.
- Ford’s unit sales rose 7.1% to 190,449 to beat the consensus estimate of analysts of 5.6%. Retail sales rose 9% during the month. The automaker saw the Ford Fusion grow sales by 51% to 22,839 and the F-Series was a juggernaut again with sales growth of 16.3% to 65,501.
- Britain’s construction sector unexpectedly picked up more speed in November, hitting its strongest levels of output and employment since August 2007.
- The number of Spaniards filing for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped for the first time in November on a monthly basis, falling by 2,475 to around 4.81M.
Number one above is critical to my argument. As well, it is critical to my investment/trading research about the transforming energy and auto industries. More on that later this week, but for now, take away that Europe is healing and both China and the US keep on trucking, despite the Marc Fabers and the breathless media.
- Cyber Monday sales results were reported and online traffic increased 58% over last year and sales rose 19%, according to the International Business Machines Corp.
Finally, I mentioned my ongoing research for the moneymakers a moment ago, so let me bring my writing back to that again.
- Sales from mobile devices soared 80% yesterday and accounted for 18.3% of the total. “This is the first holiday season where mobile is absolutely having its mark on overall retail sales, whether that’s from a smartphone or a tablet,” says JMP Securities analyst Ron Josey.
Now, for my second Wow! of the day – the uses of smart devices are reaching critical mass in terms of transforming the way we live. Opportunity is past knocking. Opportunity is banging down the door.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
