May sugar futures slid in last week’s early sessions, but recovered back to the 24 cent range by the end of the week. The news of China’s plans on becoming a more significant buyer of physical sugar available to the global market is likely to strengthen sugar futures in the coming weeks – world prices are currently priced at a discount relative to China’s internal costs, and given their internal requirements and lower domestic output, we may see additional supply going to China. While many are starting to view the world S-D balance turning favorable, continued strong demand may slow the supply recovery. Further, we still have some concerns about output in India this year. We are looking at a stronger start to the 2011 Monsoon season (June y/y map shown) with both the southern and northeastern cane growing regions expecting a favorable Monsoon onset. However, we are anticipating the potential for a drier pattern to materialize in July, which could negatively affect both growing regions. This pattern could limit current and following crop year output.
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