I am far from a yield curve expert but it did seem that the flat and inverted curves we saw did indeed forecast the recession. And now, we hear that the curve is at a record spread from short to long end. Is that really true?
I could not get the chart to work here on the road but it seems to me that the spread was the same in early 2004 as the market settled into a nice correction in a true bull market.
Can someone weigh in on what it really means? Not that a steep curve is good for banks but the whole spread thing being at a record.
Now off to Publix to buy some toothpaste before heading to the Pershing conference. They confiscated my half-used Tom’s of Maine toothpaste at the airport.
