Apart from whatever the pundits, economists and Fed watchers tell us really is important about today’s FOMC statement and press conference, my technical work on the 10-year T-bond yield continues to reflect a pattern that suggests strongly a multi-month correction is ending in the 2.90%-2.85% area, ahead of resumption of the intermediate-term bull trend that started in October 2010 at 2.33%.
To confirm that the next upleg is in progress, however, yield must hurdle and sustain above key resistance between 3.06% and 3.10%, which at this juncture might seem light years away but really is one minor but shocking policy error away. Holders of the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) will be watching closely.
