September Dow Jones – Long from 8620 – Although new jobless claims rose by 25,000 to 584,000 last week, analysts are touting this as good news because they say the number remains below earlier levels seen during the depth of the recession, as the total number of Americans claiming benefits actually fell for the third week. The market took this news and shook off yesterday’s scare from the Chinese market and surged higher, making this the best July for the stock market since 1939. The rally pushed above the previous swing high and confirmed a bullish TC (trend continuation) pattern that suggests the upward trend will continue. So, I recommend holding the long position and moving the protective stop up to 9015.However, you need to keep an eye on Friday’s swing trade day (reversal date). If the Dow can’t sustain Thursday's breakout, it will be a precursor to a significant reversal.
September Crude oil – In the last issue, I said the charts were still showing an upward trending market that is slightly overbought and due for a pullback to the 20-day MA (64.80) that would set up a swing trade strategy TC pattern.Well, I got the pullback, but it was a little more that I projected, as the market traded to a low of 62.76 before reversing and surging over $3.50 higher. The support occurred right on the lower reaction line and has set up the potential swing pattern needed to trigger a buy signal and also complete a 5-wave continuation pattern.Buy Crude oil at 67.35 stop, with a protective stop at 65.20.
September Japanese yen – Short from 1.0486– After being knocked out of the first short position, I said the new trend was still down (based of the bearish TR pattern) and suggested 1.0486 as a new entry price. The Yen did fall under pressure today, after a U.S. government report showed a third weekly reduction in people collecting unemployment benefits. Continue to hold the short position, with a protective stop at 1.0576 and 1.0355 as a target objective.
