US TREASURY FUTURES REPORT 03/31/2009

ECONOMIC DATA 04/01/2009: all times EST

  • 8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT
  • 10:00 AM- ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEY (38.0), US CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (-1.5%), US PENDING HOME SALES INDEX
  • 10:35 AM EIA INVENTORY NUMBERS.

ECONOMIC DATA 03/31/09- NAPM (Chicago) INDEX (31.4 VS. 35) US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (26.0 VS. 28.0).

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TREASURIES CONTINUE GAINS AS WORSE THAN EXPECTED DATA; MARKET VOLATILITY PROMPTS THOSE WITH WEAKER STOMACHS TO SEEK SECURE YIELD.

US Treasuries completed another session of gains, led by worse than expected readings on US manufacturing and consumer confidence. In addition, traders and investors sought out the relative security of government fixed yield as ongoing volatility in the equities markets ramped up again today, particularly in the financial sector.

Treasuries posted initial gains after the NAPM (Chicago) Index and US Consumer Confidence posted worse than expected readings. The scenario painted by these readings demonstrates an ongoing deterioration of the manufacturing sector and perceptions regarding the economy. One bright spot within the US CC was a slight uptick in sentiment regarding future prospects for the US employment picture. This element seems to present a”light at the end of the tunnel” scenario which could put a cap on the cautious rise which Treasuries seem to be posting. Treasury gains may also be muted if purchases by the Federal Reserve remain lackluster, revitalizing concerns about the extraordinary supplies which show no signs of abating in the foreseeable future.

Technically, June 30 year futures are approaching a key resistance level at 130.100. If this level is breeched and held, the market could set up to test its highs from the FOMC announcement of 132.00 and push through to 133.315. Support has set at 126.250, with key level remaining at 125.120.

US DEBT FUTURES

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

CHANGE

US M9 (US 30 YRS)

128.290

129.310

128.200

129.225

+24/32NDS

TY M9 (US 10 YRS)

123.230

124.070

123.160

124.025

+10/32nds

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Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.