But beyond that…

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,403.36) rose 3.38 points or 0.24% on Friday. NYSE volume rose 19%.

The 4-day trend is up. The seasonal tendencies for the few days at the end of one month and the beginning of the next month are generally bullish, if only by a small amount.

The 4-weeks trend is neutral: the S&P 500 is down 0.36% for the month of April. The rally that started last October stalled out in April.

The weekly MACD Histogram based on the SPX is approaching zero, illustrating a clear deceleration of the uptrend.

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks in P&F uptrends has declined to 71% currently, down from 85% in March. This Bullish Percent Index divides the number of S&P 500 stocks currently trading with Point and Figure Chart buy signals by the total number of stocks in the SPX. BPI can be used to determine overbought/oversold conditions as well as for divergence analysis. Currently, there is a bearish divergence because BPI is weaker than the SPX.

SPX has traded in a 4.57% range, between intraday extremes of 1,357.38 and 1,422.38, for 7 weeks, since 3/8/12. The extremes of this range may be considered support and resistance.

Given that SPX is now closer to the upper end of its 7 weeks trading range, the Reward to Risk appears unattractive for stocks at this time. The potential Reward to the upper end of the trading range is 19.02 SPX points, while the potential Risk to the lower end of the trading range is 45.98 SPX points. The Reward to Risk Ratio = 19.02 / 45.98 = 0.41.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 119.14, 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.80, 106.49 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed below its 50-day SMA but remains slightly above its 200-day SMA as of 4/27/12 and is now systematically neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) strengthened last week, and it would not take much more price strength to turn TIP/IEF bullish again. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral at this time: below its 50-day SMA (although just slightly below now), above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/23/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/26/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/12, turning systematically neutral. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.89, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 4/23/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/25/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/25/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) bounced over the past 5 days but could soon encounter resistance. JJC fell below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/16/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
15.75% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
6.79% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
0.57% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
0.96% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.60% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.72% , IGN , Networking, IGN
0.73% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.94% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
2.65% , PKI , PERKINELMER
0.92% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
2.36% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.32% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.29% , PMR , Retail, PMR
0.85% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.57% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.82% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
0.48% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.73% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
0.59% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.77% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.59% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.01% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
4.19% , MAS , MASCO
0.97% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
2.24% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
2.53% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.97% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
2.28% , PWER , POWER ONE
1.15% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.82% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
3.40% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.49% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.90% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.14% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-7.10% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-3.63% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-5.11% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-5.32% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-2.95% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-2.27% , HAR , Harman International
-2.27% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.72% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-0.54% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-2.59% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.81% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-0.19% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-0.85% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-1.51% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-1.10% , CL , COLGATE
-0.83% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-1.45% , CI , CIGNA
-0.40% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.39% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-1.01% , XRX , XEROX
-0.44% , MET , METLIFE
-0.34% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-0.79% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.39% , MBI , MBIA
-0.44% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.70% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-0.16% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-0.30% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
-0.37% , CLX , CLOROX
-1.50% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-0.43% , NUE , NUCOR
-0.41% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.58% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.73% Mexico Index, EWW
1.40% Sweden Index, EWD
1.25% Italy Index, EWI
1.24% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.23% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.21% Canada Index, EWC
1.15% Spain Index, EWP
1.12% Water Resources, PHO
1.04% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.96% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.96% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.94% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.89% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.88% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.85% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.83% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.82% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.80% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.78% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.77% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.77% France Index, EWQ
0.75% Austria Index, EWO
0.75% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.74% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.73% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.72% Networking, IGN
0.69% Singapore Index, EWS
0.69% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.68% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.67% Germany Index, EWG
0.66% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.65% Dividend International, PID
0.63% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.62% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.62% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.60% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.60% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.60% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.59% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.58% South Korea Index, EWY
0.58% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.58% European VIPERs, VGK
0.57% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.56% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.55% Australia Index, EWA
0.52% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.50% Russia MV, RSX
0.49% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.49% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.49% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.48% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.45% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.44% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.43% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.42% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.42% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.41% EAFE Index, EFA
0.41% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.37% South Africa Index, EZA
0.36% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.34% China 25 iS, FXI
0.34% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.34% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.34% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.34% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.33% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.33% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.32% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.31% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.30% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.29% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.29% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.29% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.28% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.27% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.27% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.25% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.25% Belgium Index, EWK
0.24% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.24% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.23% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.23% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.22% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.20% Energy Global, IXC
0.19% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.19% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.18% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.18% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.18% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.18% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.16% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.16% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.15% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.15% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.14% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.11% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.11% Global 100, IOO
0.10% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.09% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.09% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.08% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.07% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.06% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.05% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.05% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.05% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.02% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.02% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.02% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.02% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.00% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.01% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.01% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.03% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.04% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.04% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.10% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.11% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.15% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.15% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.16% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.17% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.25% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.28% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.31% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.34% India PS, PIN
-0.38% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.40% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.41% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.00% Taiwan Index, EWT