Health Care Turned Up

Health Care stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 9/24/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 33-months on 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,456.89) fell 3.26 points or 0.22% on Monday.

RSI(14), now at 67.01, has been drifting lower for several days after hitting the overbought zone, nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.

On-Balance Volume for the SPX fell to its lowest level in 2 weeks on 9/24/12 and remains below its highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence.

NYSE volume fell 34% to a level 20% below its 200-day SMA on Monday. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years last week, on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 33-months on 9/24/12. OEF/SPY turned systematically bullish again on 9/17/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. OEF/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/24/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 9/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1406.16, 50-day SMA
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1354.98, 200-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT)fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/14/12. TLT closed below its 50-day SMA on 9/5/12, turning systematically neutral. TLT whipsawed back above its 200-day SMA on 9/19/12. TLT”s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.67, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 123.09, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF)closed below its 50-day SMA on 9/6/12, turning systematically neutral. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.23, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.99, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/6/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below its 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. TIP/IEF crossed above its 200-day SMA on 9/10/12, but its 50-day SMA has remained consistently below its 200-day SMA every day since 6/27/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP’s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. The 50-200 spread is narrowing, however, and the SMAs could cross bearishly in days ahead. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.85, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index turned systematically bullish on 9/13/12 when its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA. CRB remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price suddenly and sharply fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowed since 8/3/12. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA. GLD price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 9/21/12, rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12, and rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12. Support: 170.06, 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 9/21/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11, but the 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, and a bullish crossover appears probable in days ahead. Support 32.77, 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.05, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 8/22/12, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD ratio remains strong.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.17% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
1.99% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
0.45% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2.29% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
0.64% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.36% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
2.05% , SNV , SYNOVUS
3.58% , IP , INTL PAPER
0.15% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.74% , AET , AETNA
0.58% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.39% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.08% , AES , AES
0.67% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
0.22% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.34% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.43% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.22% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.17% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.96% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.07% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.59% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
0.51% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.11% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.55% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
0.26% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.99% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.10% , FHN , First Horizon National
0.10% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.02% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.05% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
0.11% , KEY , KEYCORP
0.58% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.52% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-2.59% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-1.43% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.28% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-1.52% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-5.16% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-1.78% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-0.69% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-0.85% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.26% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.97% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-0.75% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.98% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.80% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.57% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-0.34% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-1.98% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.69% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-0.67% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-2.69% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.66% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.06% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-3.58% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-0.58% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-0.58% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-0.40% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.36% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.54% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-1.60% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.47% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-4.93% , MBI , MBIA
-1.65% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-3.89% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV