Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/26/12, thereby turning systematically bearish.

Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/26/12, thereby turning systematically neutral.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/26/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/26/12 and remains systematically neutral.

CRB Commodity Price Index turned systematically neutral on 9/26/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,433.32) fell 8.27 points or 0.57% on Wednesday. It was the lowest daily closing price since 9/10/12.

RSI(14) based on SPX, now at a neutral 50.31, fell sharply since warning of an extreme overbought condition. RSI(14) closed at 74.74 on 9/14/12, which was nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.

On-Balance Volume for the SPX fell to its lowest level in 7 weeks and remains far below its highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence.

NYSE volume fell 1% to a level 2% below its 200-day SMA on Wednesday. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years last week, on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.

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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/26/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. QQQ/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 8/5/11.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.31, 50-day SMA
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1356.90, 200-day SMA
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP’s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. The 50-200 spread is narrowing, however, and the SMAs probably will cross bearishly in days ahead. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.85, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index turned systematically neutral on 9/26/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. CRB remains moderately above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price suddenly and sharply fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowed since 8/3/12. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA. GLD price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 9/21/12, rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12, and rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12. Support: 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 9/21/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11, but the 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, and a bullish crossover appears probable in days ahead. Support 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.05, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 8/22/12, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD ratio remains strong.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

17.29% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
3.90% , BBY , BEST BUY
5.98% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
0.63% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
2.39% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.82% , PCG , PG&E
1.06% , ED , CON ED
1.05% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.79% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.68% , SVU , SUPERVALU
1.18% , AZO , AUTOZONE
1.33% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.71% , AGN , ALLERGAN
0.26% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.60% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.25% , BA , BOEING
0.72% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.26% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.86% , DHR , DANAHER
1.08% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.41% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.65% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
0.77% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.17% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.52% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
0.22% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
0.23% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.30% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
0.17% , INTU , INTUIT
0.22% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
0.19% , FISV , FISERV
1.01% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.31% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-2.84% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.57% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-9.87% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-0.34% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-4.83% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.07% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-4.20% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-1.13% , IGV , Software, IGV
-4.49% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-3.28% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-1.14% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-0.45% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.03% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.90% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.26% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-0.21% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.58% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.93% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.30% , PX , PRAXAIR
-2.28% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.01% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.71% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-4.60% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-2.80% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-3.60% , MAS , MASCO
-2.12% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.52% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.08% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-0.80% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.66% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.45% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-2.85% , NE , NOBLE
-1.31% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV