Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 11/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA.
Financial (XLF) stock sector ETF absolute price turned systematically neutral on 11/26/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector ETF absolute price turned systematically neutral on 11/26/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,398.94) fell 0.52% on Tuesday. Absolute price of SPX remains systematically neutral below its falling 50-day SMA.
NYSE trading volume rose 13% to a level that was still 9% below its 200-day SMA.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1424.48, 50-day SMA
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1383.76, 200-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 123.43, 121.78, 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.99, 107.25, 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral on 11/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral on 11/2/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.88, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 165.18, 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/21/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12 and remains moderately above.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.74% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
9.23% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
6.87% , GLW , CORNING
1.51% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
2.93% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
2.66% , SVU , SUPERVALU
7.14% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
2.48% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
0.16% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.19% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
4.37% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
3.29% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.18% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
1.08% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.93% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.07% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
4.17% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
0.89% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
1.41% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
1.50% , EXC , EXELON CORP
0.65% , OMC , OMNICOM
0.70% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
0.42% , IP , INTL PAPER
0.84% , ORCL , ORACLE
0.80% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.20% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
0.74% , SYY , SYSCO
0.80% , WPO , Washington Post
0.39% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.02% , KR , KROGER
1.30% , PPL , PPL
0.50% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
1.45% , GOOG , Google
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.58% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-3.29% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-2.54% , PLL , PALL
-1.45% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-2.41% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-2.16% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-3.62% , ZION , ZIONS
-1.46% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-3.19% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-3.04% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-2.24% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
-2.48% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-1.55% , DOV , DOVER
-1.35% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-1.34% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-3.64% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-1.81% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-2.89% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.10% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-1.31% , LM , LEGG MASON
-0.90% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.35% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.78% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-1.22% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.53% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-1.04% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.53% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-1.31% , AON , AON
-0.42% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.76% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-0.88% , USB , US BANCORP
-0.80% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-0.66% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.69% India PS, PIN
0.63% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.61% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.59% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.39% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.30% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.27% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.26% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.26% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.25% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.23% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% Australia Index, EWA
0.20% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.20% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.18% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.15% South Korea Index, EWY
0.13% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.13% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.10% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.06% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.03% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.01% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.02% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.02% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.04% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.04% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.06% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.07% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.08% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.12% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.12% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.14% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.14% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.14% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.16% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.18% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.18% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.20% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.20% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.20% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.21% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.21% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.22% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.22% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.22% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.26% Germany Index, EWG
-0.27% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.27% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.30% Austria Index, EWO
-0.30% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.31% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.32% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.34% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.35% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.35% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.37% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.38% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.39% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.39% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.39% Water Resources, PHO
-0.40% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.41% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.42% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.42% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.42% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.43% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.43% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.43% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.43% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.44% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.44% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.45% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.45% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.45% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.45% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.46% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.47% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.47% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.49% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.50% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.50% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.51% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.52% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.53% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.53% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.54% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.54% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.55% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.55% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.56% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.56% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.56% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.56% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.57% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.58% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.59% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.59% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.59% Dividend International, PID
-0.59% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.60% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.60% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.60% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.61% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.65% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.65% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.66% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.66% Networking, IGN
-0.68% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.68% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.70% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.72% Global 100, IOO
-0.75% Canada Index, EWC
-0.82% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.83% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.83% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.85% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.89% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.89% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.89% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.89% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.90% France Index, EWQ
-0.91% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.92% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.97% Energy Global, IXC
-0.98% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.01% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.18% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.22% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.26% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.31% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.40% Spain Index, EWP
-1.46% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.49% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.59% Italy Index, EWI
-1.72% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.79% Russia MV, RSX
