iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 11/28/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,409.93) rose 0.79% on Wednesday. In early weakness, SPX held above its rising 200-day SMA. SPX bounced, and by the close, SPX ended the day above its highs of the previous 13 trading days. Some traders may take these as signs of strength for the short term, news headlines permitting. Absolute price of SPX remains systematically neutral below its falling 50-day SMA, however.
NYSE trading volume rose 1% to a level that was still 8% below its 200-day SMA. Low volume indicates tepid demand for stocks.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 10/5/12, but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to confirm, remaining substantially below its 2012 high, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence. Both Averages broke down below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months again on 11/15/2012 and 11/16/2012
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 11/7/11 when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 11/28/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 11/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 10/11/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. OEF/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 11/7/11. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/12/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/24/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/23/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. Longer term, the MDY/SPY 50-day SMA has been below the 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1423.37, 50-day SMA
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1384.09, 200-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 123.43, 121.78, 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.99, 107.25, 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral on 11/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral on 11/2/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.88, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 165.18, 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/21/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12 and remains moderately above.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.29% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
1.21% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.37% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.94% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.17% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.26% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
4.57% , JCP , JC PENNEY
3.00% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
1.19% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
1.30% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.96% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.12% , SNA , SNAP ON
3.42% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
3.23% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
1.75% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
1.57% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
1.73% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
4.37% , COH , COACH
0.70% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.44% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
1.14% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
0.83% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
1.84% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
2.90% , NBR , NABORS
4.09% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
2.76% , TYC , TYCO INTL
0.59% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.93% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
1.57% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
1.28% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.96% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.81% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.77% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.70% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.29% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-3.41% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.30% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.90% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-1.56% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.33% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.28% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.65% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.53% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.67% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-0.94% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.83% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-1.62% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.27% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-0.61% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.24% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.20% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-0.85% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.38% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-0.70% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-0.46% , DD , DU PONT
-0.88% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.51% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-0.37% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
-0.37% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-0.51% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-0.36% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.72% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.40% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-0.17% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.15% , CSX , CSX
-0.35% , PCG , PG&E
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.61% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.47% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.36% Sweden Index, EWD
1.30% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.30% Networking, IGN
1.24% Spain Index, EWP
1.21% Italy Index, EWI
1.19% Energy Global, IXC
1.15% Austria Index, EWO
1.14% Singapore Index, EWS
1.14% France Index, EWQ
1.09% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.07% Energy DJ, IYE
1.05% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.05% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.04% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.00% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.98% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.96% Global 100, IOO
0.96% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.96% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.94% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.93% European VIPERs, VGK
0.91% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.90% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.89% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.88% South Korea Index, EWY
0.88% Mexico Index, EWW
0.87% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.86% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.85% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.85% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.85% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.84% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.84% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.82% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.81% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.81% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.80% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.80% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.79% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.79% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.78% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.78% Germany Index, EWG
0.78% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.77% Australia Index, EWA
0.77% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.77% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.77% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.77% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.77% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.76% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.75% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.75% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.75% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.74% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.74% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.74% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.73% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.73% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.73% Dividend International, PID
0.73% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.72% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.72% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.72% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.72% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.71% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.71% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.71% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.70% Water Resources, PHO
0.70% Belgium Index, EWK
0.70% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.69% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.68% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.68% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.67% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.67% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.66% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.66% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.65% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.64% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.63% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.62% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.61% Canada Index, EWC
0.61% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.61% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.59% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.59% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.59% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.58% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.55% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.55% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.54% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.54% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.54% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.49% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.48% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.47% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.47% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.43% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.43% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.43% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.43% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.40% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.38% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.38% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.37% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.32% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.28% India PS, PIN
0.28% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.24% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.22% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.20% South Africa Index, EZA
0.19% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.18% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.18% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.18% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.16% Japan Index, EWJ
0.15% Russia MV, RSX
0.13% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.13% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.02% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.05% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.13% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.14% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.14% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.17% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.21% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.32% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.48% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.59% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.72% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.78% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.94% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.28% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
