Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically bullish on 11/29/12 when price crossed above its 50-day SMA.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) has been whipsawing around its 50-day SMA since 6/7/12, going from systematically bearish to neutral and back again. XLB absolute price rose its 50-day SMA on 11/29/12, thereby turning systematically bullish.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/29/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/24/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,415.95) rose 0.43% on Thursday. SPX demonstrated resilience by overcoming late morning weakness in reaction to comments from House Speaker Boehner, who announced that fiscal cliff talks were making no “substantive progress”. Bullish month-end seasonal tendencies plus price strength in foreign stock markets might have helped to save the day.
SPX closed the regular day session above its highs of the previous 14 trading days, thereby confirming an uptrend for the day-to-day, Minor Ripple trend (which longer-term investors view as insignificant noise). Absolute price of SPX remains systematically neutral below its falling 50-day SMA.
NYSE trading volume fell slightly to a level that was 8% below its 200-day SMA. Low volume indicates tepid demand for stocks.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 10/5/12, but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to confirm, remaining substantially below its 2012 high, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence. Both Averages broke down below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months again on 11/15/2012 and 11/16/2012.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 11/7/11 when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 11/28/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 11/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 10/11/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. OEF/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 11/7/11. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/29/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/24/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/23/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. Longer term, the MDY/SPY 50-day SMA has been below the 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.46, 50-day SMA
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1384.41, 200-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral on 11/2/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically bullish on 11/29/12 when price crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.88, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 165.18, 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/21/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12 and remains moderately above.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.34% , PIN , India PS, PIN
2.83% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
7.39% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.92% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.78% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
1.03% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
4.75% , KR , KROGER
1.19% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
4.03% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
0.93% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.55% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
3.26% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.00% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.06% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
3.05% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
3.33% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
3.96% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
4.08% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.73% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
0.81% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
3.70% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
2.88% , FAST , Fastenal Company
0.88% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
2.04% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.68% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
2.19% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
4.66% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
0.49% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.44% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.04% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
2.49% , F , FORD MOTOR
0.45% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.09% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.98% , KSS , KOHLS
-18.57% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-6.17% , TIF , TIFFANY
-4.08% , GPS , GAP
-1.30% , PLL , PALL
-2.79% , INTC , INTEL
-1.01% , SYK , STRYKER
-3.00% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.80% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.59% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.04% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-0.78% , XLNX , XILINX
-1.01% , TLAB , TELLABS
-0.59% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.82% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.61% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-0.55% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.83% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-1.50% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-1.79% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-1.07% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.45% , LOW , LOWES
-0.47% , EFX , EQUIFAX
-0.40% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.70% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-0.19% , TER , TERADYNE
-0.44% , RAI , Reynolds American
-1.50% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.27% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.51% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.23% , IBM , IBM
-0.07% , AVP , AVON
-0.70% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.45% India Earnings WTree, EPI
3.34% India PS, PIN
2.16% Italy Index, EWI
1.56% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.54% Networking, IGN
1.49% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.40% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.33% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.28% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.24% Belgium Index, EWK
1.20% Singapore Index, EWS
1.20% Water Resources, PHO
1.20% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.19% Japan Index, EWJ
1.16% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.16% Spain Index, EWP
1.15% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.15% South Africa Index, EZA
1.14% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.14% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.14% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.14% Austria Index, EWO
1.12% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.11% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.11% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.04% France Index, EWQ
1.02% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.01% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.00% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.96% European VIPERs, VGK
0.93% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.92% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.92% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.92% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.90% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.90% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.86% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.86% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.80% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.80% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.79% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.79% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.79% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.79% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.78% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.77% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.76% Mexico Index, EWW
0.75% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.73% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.72% Dividend International, PID
0.70% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.70% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.70% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.69% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.69% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.69% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.68% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.68% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.67% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.66% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.66% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.66% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.65% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.64% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.64% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.63% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.63% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.62% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.61% Australia Index, EWA
0.60% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.59% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.58% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.58% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.58% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.57% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.57% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.57% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.56% Germany Index, EWG
0.56% South Korea Index, EWY
0.55% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.55% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.54% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.53% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.53% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.52% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.52% Global 100, IOO
0.51% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.51% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.51% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.49% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.49% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.48% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.48% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.47% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.47% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.47% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.47% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.46% Canada Index, EWC
0.46% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.45% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.45% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.45% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.45% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.44% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.43% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.42% Sweden Index, EWD
0.42% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.42% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.41% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.41% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.40% Russia MV, RSX
0.40% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.39% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.38% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.38% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.37% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.37% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.37% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.35% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.33% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.30% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.27% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.26% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.26% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.24% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.23% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.21% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.21% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.20% Energy DJ, IYE
0.20% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.18% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.13% Energy Global, IXC
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.10% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.07% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.04% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.03% China 25 iS, FXI
0.02% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.55% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
