Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/27/13, thereby turning systematically neutral.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6-months on 3/27/13. XLB/SPY remains systematically neutral but appears to be heading for a bearish 50/200 cross in days ahead.
Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 3/27/13, again confirming its established systematically bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 3/27/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 16 months on 3/27/13, again confirming a major downtrend.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 7-months on 3/27/13 thereby confirming its medium-term uptrend.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/27/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend.
U.S. stocks rebounded from opening weakness to close mixed on subdued volume. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,562.85) finished lower by 0.06%, Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.23%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 0.18%. Breadth was positive, with 2136 Advances and 1801 Declines. Volume on the NYSE rose 2% to a level 10% below its 200-day SMA.
The S&P 500 index appears to have stalled out since 3/14/13 after encountering technical resistance just below 1,565.15, which was its record high close set on 10/9/2007. By remaining below that old top, the S&P 500 shows a non-confirmation and bearish divergence compared to the Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages, both of which exceeded their old highs this month.
Daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly in recent weeks while price indexes rose to higher highs. Momentum oscillators have remained below their 2011-2012 highs and below their highs of late January. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index, now at 61.69, peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9), now at 12.20, peaked at 17.88 on 1/29/13. Bearishly diverging momentum is a problem because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
It is obvious that the stock market has been resilient in the face of a challenging news backdrop. Down days have been relatively brief and mild, and then prices spring back. Investor sentiment has remained unusually bullish. The Art of Contrary Thinking has been calling for questioning overwhelming bullish sentiment. Objective investor sentiment data clearly have demonstrated extremely high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency, matching or exceeding extremes at past market price tops. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Sentiment extremes are a leading indicator of price.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1565.15, highest close on 10/9/2007
1564.91, high of 3/25/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1538.57, low of 3/19/2013
1521.73, 50-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1433.88, 200-day SMA
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT)price rose back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/22/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13. Support 114.62, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 119.67, 120.70, 123.71, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF)price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IEF formed a technical base after hitting an “oversold” low at 105.56 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low 3 times. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13. Support 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 107.38, 108.07, 108.15, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years, and it seems questionable whether this long-term trend is changing in any sustainable way.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. Longer term, TIP/IEF has been neutral for most of the past 3 years. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically neutral.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 7-months on 3/27/13 thereby confirming its medium-term uptrend. UUP turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/7/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.35, 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/6/13, again confirming its major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bullish on 3/26/13 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.87, 32.16, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 2/20/13 and appears to be consolidating losses in more recent weeks. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 150.84, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 2/20/13 and appears to be consolidating losses in more recent weeks. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 27.35, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/27/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. SLV/GLD remains neutral below both its 50-day SMA and its 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/19/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. JJC remains systematically neutral, below the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. JJC has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness of Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.49% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
4.28% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
2.82% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
3.03% , HUM , HUMANA
2.63% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
3.16% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
2.34% , NBR , NABORS
1.70% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
1.33% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
1.46% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
1.85% , BLL , BALL
1.31% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
1.71% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
0.40% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
1.74% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
1.04% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
1.28% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.76% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
0.35% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.48% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.24% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
1.71% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
2.06% , APA , APACHE
1.25% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.32% , ORCL , ORACLE
0.97% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.75% , ED , CON ED
0.68% , CMI , CUMMINS
0.97% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
0.94% , K , KELLOGG
1.09% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.15% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.28% , MON , MONSANTO
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-13.86% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.67% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.88% , ASH , ASHLAND
-1.82% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.79% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-1.90% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.55% , FHN , First Horizon National
-2.96% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-0.77% , BCR , C R BARD
-1.92% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.79% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-0.91% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.20% , GOOG , Google
-1.62% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-2.51% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.45% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-1.05% , SNA , SNAP ON
-0.30% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.19% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.87% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-1.33% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-0.57% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-0.69% , ETN , EATON
-0.61% , L , LOEWS
-1.31% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-1.84% , IR , INGER RAND
-1.65% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.68% , ECL , ECOLAB
-1.72% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-0.82% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.32% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.26% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.93% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.36% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.29% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.25% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.18% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.97% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.96% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.85% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.62% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.58% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.57% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.56% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.56% , India PS, PIN
0.55% , Networking, IGN
0.51% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.51% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.51% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.48% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.47% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.44% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.43% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.42% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.42% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.41% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.40% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.38% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.38% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.36% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.35% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.34% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.33% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.31% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.30% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.29% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.29% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.27% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.27% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.24% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.24% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.23% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.21% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.20% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.20% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.20% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.20% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.19% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.19% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.18% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.17% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.17% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.16% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.15% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.15% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.14% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.14% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.13% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.13% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.11% , Australia Index, EWA
0.11% , Russia MV, RSX
0.11% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.10% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.10% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.08% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.07% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.07% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.07% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.06% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.05% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.04% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.04% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.04% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.04% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.03% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.03% , Energy Global, IXC
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.01% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.01% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.00% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.00% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.00% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.00% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.02% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.02% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.03% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.07% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.07% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.07% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.07% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.07% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.08% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.08% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.10% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.11% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.11% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.12% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.14% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.14% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.17% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.17% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.17% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.20% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.21% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.22% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.23% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.25% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.26% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.28% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.30% , Dividend International, PID
-0.33% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.36% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.38% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.43% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.44% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.47% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.48% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.49% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.57% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.60% , Global 100, IOO
-0.65% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.69% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.69% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.74% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.75% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.00% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.02% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.14% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.16% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.26% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.26% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.33% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.46% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.60% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.66% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.67% , France Index, EWQ
-1.92% , Italy Index, EWI
