Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/18/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 18 months.
Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months.
Financial Stock Sector absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 4/18/13.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,541.61) fell below its lows of the past 6 weeks. SPX finished down 0.67%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.56%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average eased lower by just 0.09%.
NYSE total volume fell 9% to a level 23% above its 200-day SMA.
Breadth was moderately negative, with 1750 Advances and 2195 Declines. In addition, Advancing/Declining Volume was negative, with 2.0 Advancing Stock Volume to 2.3 Declining Stock Volume.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory last confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 3/14/13, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed at new price highs. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at a higher high on 4/11/13, while the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to a lower high, thereby continuing a bearish divergence.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 4/18/13. QQQ/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 11/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price turned systematically neutral on 4/5/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 4/1/13, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. EFA/SPY remains systematically neutral but has been losing long-term momentum since 12/28/12 and appears to be heading for a 50/200 bearish crossover in days ahead.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 4/15/13 when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 4/17/13. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. IWM/SPY fell below the 200-day SMA on 4/15/13. Absolute price peaked on 3/15/13 and has been lagging the broader stock market price indexes since then, thereby demonstrating a bearish divergence.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 4/18/13. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 4/17/13. MDY/SPY has been lagging the broader stock market price indexes since 3/20/13.
Daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly for many weeks and months while most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Daily price momentum oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 67.28 on 4/11/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a higher high. And MACD(12,26,9) peaked at 17.88 on 1/29/13 but was only 11.48 on 4/11/13. In addition, NYSE Net New Highs, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs, and the Bullish Percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 in Point-and-Figure Chart uptrends all failed to rise to higher highs in April 2013. Bearishly diverging momentum is a problem because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above its highs of the past 3 months on 4/17/13, thereby confirming a medium-term uptrend. Previously, price rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/22/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, are now pointing upward after showing losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13. Support 117.49, 114.62, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 123.71, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price rose above its highs of the past 3 months on 4/17/13, thereby confirming a medium-term uptrend. Previously, price rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. IEF formed a technical base after hitting an “oversold” low at 105.56 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low 3 times. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, are now pointing upward after showing losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13. Support 107.22, 106.56, 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years, and neutral appears to be the long-term trend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. Longer term, TIP/IEF has been neutral for most of the past 3 years. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically neutral.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 4/14/13, when it whipsawed back above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.69, 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, again confirming its major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 4/17/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/18/13 when he ith a 50/200-day SMA crossover probable. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 143.42 and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73 and 19.44. Resistance: 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/18/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 18 months on 4/18/13, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend. JJC remains systematically bearish. JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.23% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
3.04% , PEP , PEPSICO
4.58% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
2.64% , JCP , JC PENNEY
4.03% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
4.52% , NE , NOBLE
2.41% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
0.56% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
0.95% , SWY , SAFEWAY
1.93% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
1.04% , COH , COACH
1.06% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.93% , AN , AUTONATION
1.41% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.42% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
1.23% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.74% , PWER , POWER ONE
1.29% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
0.66% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
2.77% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
1.58% , ETR , ENTERGY
1.06% , MTB , M&T BANK
0.98% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.87% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
0.76% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
2.33% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.52% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.62% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.70% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
0.30% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
1.29% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
0.69% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
1.69% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.92% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-2.83% , DHR , DANAHER
-5.85% , EBAY , EBAY
-1.86% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-6.64% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-2.39% , FDX , FEDEX
-3.77% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-2.50% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-3.14% , HUM , HUMANA
-2.47% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-2.17% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-1.12% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-1.72% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-3.60% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-4.00% , KBH , KB HOME
-1.01% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.26% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-2.10% , KEY , KEYCORP
-2.70% , ETN , EATON
-0.85% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.69% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.13% , GOOG , Google
-1.26% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-1.20% , IBM , IBM
-1.07% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-1.94% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.34% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.06% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-0.88% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-2.38% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
-2.50% , BBT , BB&T
-3.25% , XRX , XEROX
-0.58% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.03% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.95% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.68% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.46% , India PS, PIN
1.40% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.23% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.21% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.08% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.06% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.92% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.86% , Russia MV, RSX
0.85% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.85% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.82% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.81% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.75% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.72% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.65% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.56% , Energy Global, IXC
0.52% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.52% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.48% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.35% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.35% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.33% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.31% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.30% , Canada Index, EWC
0.29% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.24% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.22% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.19% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.17% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.13% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.12% , Dividend International, PID
0.11% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.09% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.08% , Italy Index, EWI
0.08% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.03% , Spain Index, EWP
0.02% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.02% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.00% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.00% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.07% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.08% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.08% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.09% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.09% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.09% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.10% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.10% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.10% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.13% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.13% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.15% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.15% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.16% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.18% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.19% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.19% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.20% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.21% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.23% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.24% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.25% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.25% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.29% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.29% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.29% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.30% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.31% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.31% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.31% , Global 100, IOO
-0.34% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.34% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.35% , France Index, EWQ
-0.35% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.36% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.36% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.37% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.42% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.42% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.45% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.46% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.47% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.47% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.47% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.48% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.48% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.50% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.53% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.55% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.57% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.58% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.58% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.58% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.61% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.61% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.63% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.63% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.63% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.63% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.66% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.66% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.67% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.67% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.70% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.71% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.75% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.79% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.80% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.83% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.85% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.86% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.87% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.88% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.90% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.94% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.96% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.01% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.02% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.03% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.04% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.05% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.06% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.09% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.22% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.27% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.37% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.39% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.45% , Networking, IGN
-1.46% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.51% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.68% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.69% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.94% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1597.35, intraday high of 4/11/2013
1576.09, intraday high of 10/11/2007
1543.04, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1451.53, 200-day SMA
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
