Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/22/13.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/22/13, confirming a major downtrend. Silver is more of an industrial metal compared to the wonderful but way-too-expensive Gold.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/22/13, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend. JJC remains systematically bearish. JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.

On Monday, stocks recovered a little more of last weeks’ damage–but volume declined again. It is a sign of weakness when prices rise on relatively light volume and fall on heavier volume.

My interpretation of the technical indicators suggests that the medium-term stock market uptrend evident from November into early April may be over.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,562.50) finished up 0.47%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.86%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.14%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 0.29%.

NYSE total volume fell 15% to a level 7% below its 200-day SMA.

Breadth was positive, with 2,392 Advances and 1,582 Declines. In addition, Advancing/Declining Volume was positive, with 1.9 Advancing Stock Volume to 1.2 Declining Stock Volume.

Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory last confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 3/14/13, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed at new price highs. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at a higher high on 4/11/13, while the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to a lower high, thereby continuing a bearish divergence.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 4/18/13. QQQ/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 11/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price turned systematically neutral on 4/5/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 4/1/13, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. EFA/SPY remains systematically neutral but has been losing long-term momentum since 12/28/12 and appears to be heading for a 50/200 bearish crossover in days ahead.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral again (from bearish) on 4/22/13, when whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 4/17/13. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. IWM/SPY fell below the 200-day SMA on 4/15/13. Absolute price peaked on 3/15/13 and has been lagging the broader stock market price indexes since then, thereby demonstrating a bearish divergence.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 4/18/13. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 4/17/13. MDY/SPY has been lagging the broader stock market price indexes since 3/20/13.

Daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly for many weeks and months while most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Daily price momentum oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 67.28 on 4/11/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a higher high. And MACD(12,26,9) peaked at 17.88 on 1/29/13 but was only 11.48 on 4/11/13. In addition, NYSE Net New Highs, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs, and the Bullish Percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 in Point-and-Figure Chart uptrends all failed to rise to higher highs in April 2013. Bearishly diverging momentum is a problem because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 4/17/13, when it whipsawed back above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.21, 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.69, 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, again confirming its major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 4/17/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/18/13 when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.31, 33.92, 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 143.42 and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73 and 19.44. Resistance: 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/22/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/22/13, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend. JJC remains systematically bearish. JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
56.68% , PWER , POWER ONE
6.73% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
5.87% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
2.13% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
2.83% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
2.46% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
2.66% , HAR , Harman International
4.74% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
0.50% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
3.24% , IP , INTL PAPER
3.04% , GCI , GANNETT
5.59% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
3.58% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
0.50% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
2.28% , VFC , VF
0.66% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
2.48% , DD , DU PONT
1.56% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
3.44% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
2.98% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.36% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
0.19% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.49% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
0.53% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.42% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.20% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.90% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
0.95% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.36% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
3.91% , MDP , MEREDITH
0.17% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
0.91% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
2.63% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.53% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.30% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.10% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.90% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-1.32% , CR , CRANE
-0.50% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.89% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-0.55% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.19% , COH , COACH
-0.50% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-0.31% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-1.69% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-0.23% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.25% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-1.29% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.57% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-0.42% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.99% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.22% , DOV , DOVER
-0.14% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.10% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-0.79% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-1.28% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-0.27% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-0.69% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.10% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.02% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.34% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-0.04% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.29% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.46% , Italy Index, EWI
2.13% , Spain Index, EWP
1.79% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.63% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.42% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.37% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.32% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.28% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.27% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.24% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.16% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.08% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.08% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.07% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.07% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.04% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.03% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.98% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.97% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.95% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.95% , Energy Global, IXC
0.87% , Austria Index, EWO
0.85% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.81% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.77% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.77% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.73% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.71% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.70% , Networking, IGN
0.70% , France Index, EWQ
0.69% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.68% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.68% , Australia Index, EWA
0.64% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.61% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.61% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.60% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.59% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.58% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.58% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.57% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.55% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.55% , Global 100, IOO
0.53% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.53% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.50% , Germany Index, EWG
0.49% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.48% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.48% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.47% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.44% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.44% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.44% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.43% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.43% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.43% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.42% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.42% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.42% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.42% , Dividend International, PID
0.41% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.39% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.38% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.38% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.38% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.36% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.36% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.35% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.35% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.35% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.35% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.33% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.33% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.32% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.32% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.31% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.31% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.30% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.30% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.29% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.29% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.29% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.29% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.28% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.27% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.27% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.26% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.26% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.24% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.23% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.23% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.23% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.22% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.22% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.20% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.19% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.19% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.19% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.17% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.16% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.15% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.14% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.14% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.13% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.12% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.12% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.12% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.11% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.11% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.11% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.08% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.07% , Canada Index, EWC
0.07% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.07% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.06% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.03% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.03% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.00% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.05% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.09% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.12% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.14% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.15% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.17% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.19% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.26% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.29% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.32% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.39% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.44% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.48% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.49% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.50% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.50% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.60% , India PS, PIN
-0.69% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.80% , South Africa Index, EZA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1597.35, intraday high of 4/11/2013
1576.09, intraday high of 10/11/2007

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1544.96, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1453.48, 200-day SMA
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009