Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/25/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11.
U.S. stocks gapped higher on the open on Tuesday. After a few minor skirmishes up and down, prices closed about where they opened, thereby forming indecisive Spinning Top Candlesticks. In other words, it was a standoff of opposing forces, of bulls and bears, with neither side taking ground from the open.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,588.03) finished higher by 0.95% while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.82%.
> The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE recovered, partially, but remains below its 50-day SMA.
NYSE Volume fell 23% from Monday’s level and was 11% above its own 200-day SMA. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE recovered, partially, but remains below its 50-day SMA.
On Monday, 6/24/13, the S&P 500 fell its lowest closing price in 8 weeks, since 4/22/13. It fell 5.76% from 5/21/13 to 6/24/13, based on closing prices–the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 24 trading days. The magnitude and duration of the price decline is probably telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.
The bullish majority had been taking encouragement from the SPX and other major stock price indexes holding support at or near their widely-followed 50-day SMAs. Now that support has been violated, SPX could fall further to test its 200-day SMA, now at 1507.82.
A wide variety of technical oscillators previously had given early warning after losing upside momentum and showing persistent bearish divergences over periods of weeks and months. Now, it seems quite apparent that there has been considerable technical damage to the previously bullish stock market trend. This damage probably signals a significant downside correction, or possibly worse. In any case, caution seems warranted.
Following a persistent trend, investors typically overestimate the market’s ability to continue in that same trend direction, while underestimating risks of trend reversal and the natural tendency of all markets to move both up and down, going from overbought to oversold, just as they always have.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction on 6/20-6/21/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed below their price lows of the previous 7 weeks. Previously, on 5/28/13, the Dow Theory warned of a non-confirmation bearish divergence when the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high. A Secondary Reaction is often significant in extent and duration, possibly retracing a substantial fraction of the previous move over a period lasting several months.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and so I previously warned “that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.”
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/20/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/20/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 6/20/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically neutral. MDY/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 6/21/13–an obvious sign of weakness. MDY/SPY has been trending lower since peaking on 3/20/13. Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/25/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.14% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.26% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
3.21% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.20% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.62% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.86% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.15% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
2.78% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
2.23% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
1.42% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
2.27% , INTU , INTUIT
0.98% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
3.88% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
4.09% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.80% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.87% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
2.45% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
3.39% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
3.20% , CMA , COMERICA
1.99% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
1.81% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
5.03% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
0.99% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
3.08% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
3.21% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
1.67% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.52% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
1.36% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
0.32% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
1.12% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.79% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.03% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.69% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.89% , WAG , WALGREEN
-1.95% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.73% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.76% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.39% , CVS , CVS
-0.46% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.21% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-0.44% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
-0.40% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-0.02% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.27% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
3.21% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.97% , Singapore Index, EWS
2.79% , Sweden Index, EWD
2.78% , Taiwan Index, EWT
2.49% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.44% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.42% , India PS, PIN
2.25% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
2.20% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.14% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.13% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
2.08% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.03% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.00% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.92% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.89% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.86% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.86% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.86% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.85% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.84% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.83% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.83% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.83% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.82% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.81% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.81% , Australia Index, EWA
1.79% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.73% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.68% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.67% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.63% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.61% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.47% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.45% , Water Resources, PHO
1.45% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
1.44% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.43% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.43% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
1.42% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.42% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.32% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.32% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.31% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.29% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.29% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.29% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.28% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.28% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.27% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.26% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.25% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.25% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.25% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.24% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.24% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
1.22% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.20% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.20% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.20% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.20% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.19% , Networking, IGN
1.18% , Germany Index, EWG
1.17% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.16% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.16% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.14% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.14% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.12% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.12% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.11% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.10% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.09% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.08% , Canada Index, EWC
1.04% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.03% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.03% , France Index, EWQ
1.02% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.01% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.00% , Dividend International, PID
1.00% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.99% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.99% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.99% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.98% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.98% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.97% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.96% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.96% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.96% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.95% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.95% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.95% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.92% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.92% , Russia MV, RSX
0.91% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.91% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.91% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.90% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.86% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.85% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.84% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.83% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.80% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.73% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.73% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.70% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.68% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.67% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.67% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.66% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.63% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.63% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.60% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.54% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.51% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.36% , Spain Index, EWP
0.33% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.30% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.29% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.17% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.17% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.14% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.11% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.08% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.12% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.12% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.32% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.37% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.44% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.49% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.63% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.73% , Global 100, IOO
-0.75% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.89% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.99% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.13% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.54% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1618.63, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1507.82, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
