Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price also whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
U.S. stock market price indexes opened flat but quickly began to rally to a peak at 1:03 p.m. ET on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Composite Index surrendered part of its early gains into the close, which was above the open, above the previous day’s close, and slightly) above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,652.35) rose 0.38% but again closed below its widely-watched 50-day SMA for the third consecutive session. SPX remains below its May highs, which suggests a loss of upside price momentum for the medium term. Short-term daily momentum has been bearish since SPX closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13.
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average surrendered all of its early gains into the close, which was below the open, below the previous day’s close, and below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume rose 3% to a level 10% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE turned up. Both closed below their 50-day SMAs, however. Previously, in July and so far in August, both Volume and Breadth lines failed to rise above their May highs; the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13, but Volume and Breadth did not rise to higher highs. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence relative to the price indexes.
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows turned negative on Thursday 8/15/13 and remains bearish, that is, with a lesser number of New Highs and greater number of New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its May high at the August price highs, thereby warning of bearish divergence relative to the price indexes.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), also remain bearishly divergent compared to price.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/13/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price is systematically neutral above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. GLD may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD price trend was bearish since price peaked at 185.85 on 9/6/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. SLV may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: SLV price trend was bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.24% BBY BEST BUY
5.98% JCP JC PENNEY
1.04% PMR Retail, PMR
1.24% VXF Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
8.19% URBN Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.96% IWP Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
6.88% TJX TJX
3.65% AGN ALLERGAN
5.20% NFLX Netflix, NFLX
0.93% IYZ Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.02% IYT Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.42% MMC MARSH & MCLENNAN
3.05% THC TENET HEALTHCARE
1.61% PKB Building & Construction, PKB
1.68% HOLX Hologic, Inc., HOLX
2.62% SPLS STAPLES
2.89% ZION ZIONS
3.38% ROST Ross Stores Inc
2.63% WY WEYERHAEUSER
3.96% VMC VULCAN MATERIALS
1.49% IJR SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.26% IJK Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.45% FAST Fastenal Company
1.33% R RYDER SYSTEM
0.33% PFM Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
0.68% PWB Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.04% FPX IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.10% IWS Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.61% TLH Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
2.47% SIL Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.86% RF REGIONS FINAN
1.75% RYAAY Ryanair Holdings plc
1.94% MS MORGAN STANLEY
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.70% USO Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.95% IDX Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.22% HD HOME DEPOT
-2.35% MDT MEDTRONIC
-1.70% GLW CORNING
-0.54% EWA Australia Index, EWA
-0.88% EWJ Japan Index, EWJ
-0.47% MO ALTRIA, MO
-0.27% BIG BIG LOTS
-0.69% XRX XEROX
-1.12% PM Philip Morris, PM
-0.96% SDS Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.44% INTU INTUIT
-0.33% EMB Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.43% TGT TARGET
-0.69% ECL ECOLAB
-1.29% EWH Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.85% EWS Singapore Index, EWS
-0.81% DHR DANAHER
-0.45% SH Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.08% EZU EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.48% WMT WAL MART STORES
-0.30% K KELLOGG
-0.33% NTAP NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.46% PSQ Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.07% SCZ Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.30% EWI Italy Index, EWI
-0.22% UTX UNITED TECH
-0.12% ININ Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.15% EBAY EBAY
-0.10% XOM EXXON MOBIL
-0.07% DOG Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.04% MRK MERCK & CO
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.65% India PS, PIN
2.65% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.35% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
2.32% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.30% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.27% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.25% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.78% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.72% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.54% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.49% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.49% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.48% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.48% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.45% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.44% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.43% South Africa Index, EZA
1.41% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.40% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.39% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.37% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.34% Mexico Index, EWW
1.32% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.32% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.30% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.26% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.20% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.17% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.16% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.12% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.10% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.09% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.04% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.02% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.02% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.96% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.96% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.94% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.93% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.92% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.85% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.83% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.82% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.81% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.79% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.77% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.77% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.76% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.70% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.70% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.69% Russia MV, RSX
0.68% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.66% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.66% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.63% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.62% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.61% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.61% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.61% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.61% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.58% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.57% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.57% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.56% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.55% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.54% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.51% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.51% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.51% Energy DJ, IYE
0.51% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.49% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.49% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.49% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.48% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.48% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.47% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.45% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.44% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.42% Sweden Index, EWD
0.41% Energy Global, IXC
0.40% Water Resources, PHO
0.37% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.35% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.33% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.33% Networking, IGN
0.32% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.31% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.30% European VIPERs, VGK
0.30% Dividend International, PID
0.29% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.28% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.28% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.28% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.25% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.23% Germany Index, EWG
0.22% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.18% Canada Index, EWC
0.18% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.16% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.14% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.12% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.04% Global 100, IOO
0.02% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.00% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.00% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.07% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.08% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.13% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.13% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.14% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.18% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.19% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.19% France Index, EWQ
-0.21% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.21% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.30% Italy Index, EWI
-0.33% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.34% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.36% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.38% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.45% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.54% Austria Index, EWO
-0.54% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.54% Australia Index, EWA
-0.55% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.68% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.68% Spain Index, EWP
-0.75% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.78% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.85% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.87% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.88% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.95% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.29% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.36% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.55% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.70% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.95% Indonesia MV, IDX
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
1657.65, 50-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1552.23, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
