Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Longer term, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/21/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/21/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
U.S. stock market price indexes were moderately lower before release of the Federal Open Market Committee statement at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, after which prices suddenly blew out the day’s high-low range, first to the downside, then to the upside. Prices peaked by 2:48 p.m., then collapsed again down near the lowest levels of the day at the close.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,642.80, down 0.58%) closed below the open, below the previous day’s close, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, below its lowest levels of the previous 6 weeks, and below its widely-watched 50-day SMA for the 4th consecutive session.
SPX is below its highs of May, June, July, and August, which suggests a loss of upside price momentum for the medium term. Short-term daily momentum has been bearish since SPX closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Some popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as MACD(12,26,9), have remained bearishly divergent compared to SPX price since May, 2013. RSI(14) is starting to look “oversold”, although that does not imply any immediate trend reversal.
NYSE total volume rose only slightly to a level 10% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE turned back down. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its lowest closes of the previous 6 weeks. Previously, in July and so far in August, both Volume and Breadth lines failed to rise above their May highs; the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13, but Volume and Breadth did not rise to higher highs. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows turned negative on Thursday 8/15/13 and remains bearish, that is, with a lesser number of New Highs and greater number of New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its May high at the August price highs, thereby warning of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/13/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Longer term, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. GLD may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD price trend was bearish since price peaked at 185.85 on 9/6/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. SLV may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: SLV price trend was bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.76% GRMN GARMIN LTD
3.92% LOW LOWES
2.62% CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions
1.40% XBI Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.18% PST 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.45% DXD Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.19% GILD Gilead Sciences Inc
0.87% MYY Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
4.04% SHLD SEARS HOLDINGS
0.82% RFMD RF Micro Devices Inc
0.72% QID Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.04% FDO FAMILY DLR STRS
1.26% MAS MASCO
0.65% DGX QUEST DIAG
0.89% FE FIRSTENERGY
1.26% SDS Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.63% SH Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.99% TBT 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
1.25% DLX DELUXE
0.37% PSQ Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.17% JCI JOHNSON CONTROLS
0.28% AIV APT INV MNGMT
0.44% WMT WAL MART STORES
0.07% XL XL CAPITAL STK A
0.19% LNC LINCOLN NATL
0.51% DOW DOW CHEMICAL
0.13% IR INGER RAND
0.15% BCR C R BARD
0.73% FRX FOREST LABS STK A
0.16% IBM IBM
0.02% BMC.O BMC SOFTWARE
1.25% APA APACHE
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-15.29% SPLS STAPLES
-0.93% IXC Energy Global, IXC
-6.02% PIN India PS, PIN
-5.46% TUR Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.83% ODP OFFICE DEPOT
-4.47% EPI India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.61% TGT TARGET
-2.57% EZA South Africa Index, EZA
-3.73% TUP TUPPERWARE
-5.33% PETM PETsMART Inc
-2.53% EWY South Korea Index, EWY
-3.74% THD Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.01% OMX OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-2.34% EEM Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.46% TDC Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.45% DDM Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-0.67% IWR MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.71% LAMR Lamar Advertising Company
-0.61% IWV LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.78% HPQ HEWLETT PACKARD
-0.58% OEF LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.01% CMCSA COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-1.84% DB Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-0.80% KCE Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.63% ERIC.O LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.37% LXK LEXMARK INTL STK A
-1.88% ADI.O ANALOG DEVICES
-0.84% EWU United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.83% IYC Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-1.55% CAH CARDINAL HEALTH
-1.74% MSI Motorola Solutions, MSI
-2.00% AA ALCOA
-0.74% DIA DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.40% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.73% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.63% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.12% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.13% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.16% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.16% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.20% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.21% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.21% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.22% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.23% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.23% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.25% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.28% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.29% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.31% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.32% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.34% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.36% Water Resources, PHO
-0.36% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.37% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.38% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.43% Austria Index, EWO
-0.44% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.45% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.46% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.48% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.49% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.51% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.52% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.52% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.55% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.55% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.55% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.56% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.56% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.57% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.57% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.57% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.58% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.58% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.58% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.59% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.60% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.60% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.60% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.61% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.61% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.61% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.62% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.62% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.62% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.63% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.63% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.64% Germany Index, EWG
-0.66% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.66% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.66% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.67% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.69% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.69% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.69% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.70% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.70% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.71% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.72% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.73% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.73% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.74% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.75% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.76% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.76% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.76% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.77% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.77% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.77% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.77% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.78% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.78% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.80% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.80% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.81% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.81% Spain Index, EWP
-0.82% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.82% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.84% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.85% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.86% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.87% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.87% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.88% France Index, EWQ
-0.89% Italy Index, EWI
-0.89% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.93% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.93% Energy Global, IXC
-0.94% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.96% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.01% Global 100, IOO
-1.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.05% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.06% Russia MV, RSX
-1.09% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.13% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.14% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.14% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.18% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.18% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.18% Australia Index, EWA
-1.21% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.25% Dividend International, PID
-1.29% Networking, IGN
-1.34% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.35% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.36% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.40% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.43% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.43% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.52% Canada Index, EWC
-1.63% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.66% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.78% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.94% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.00% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.02% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.04% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.21% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.30% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.34% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-2.41% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.53% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.57% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.75% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.79% Sweden Index, EWD
-3.35% Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.74% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-4.47% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-5.46% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-6.02% India PS, PIN
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
1657.98, 50-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1553.37, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
