Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/22/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/22/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
U.S. stock market price indexes opened higher and added to gains during the session on Thursday. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,656.96, up 0.86%) closed above the open, above the previous day’s close, and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. It remained below its widely-watched 50-day SMA for the 5th consecutive session.
SPX remains below its highs of May, June, July, and August, which suggests a loss of upside price momentum for the medium term. Short-term daily momentum has been bearish since SPX closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), have remained bearishly divergent compared to SPX price since May, 2013.
NYSE total volume fell 17% to a level 25% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE turned up, after falling below its lowest closes of the previous 7 weeks on 8/19/13. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line also turned up, after falling below its lowest closes of the previous 6 weeks on 8/21/13. Previously, both Volume and Breadth lines failed to rise above their May highs when the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows turned negative on Thursday 8/15/13 and remains bearish, that is, with a lesser number of New Highs and greater number of New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its May high at the August price highs, thereby warning of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/22/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Longer term, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. GLD may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD price trend was bearish since price peaked at 185.85 on 9/6/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. SLV may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: SLV price trend was bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.42% EWN Netherlands Index, EWN
1.36% LO Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.93% IYY LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.80% CTL CENTURYTEL
3.01% WMB WILLIAMS
3.10% YHOO YAHOO
0.97% VUG Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.32% IGV Software, IGV
2.49% DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.18% PEG PUBL SVC ENTER
1.45% PBE Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.82% D DOMINION RSCS
0.54% VPU Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.78% PID Dividend International, PID
0.63% LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN
2.30% A AGILENT TECH
3.72% CBS CBS CORP.
0.37% MCD MCDONALDS
4.30% PIN India PS, PIN
1.27% FPX IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.63% KMB KIMBERLY CLARK
0.61% VGT Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.59% PPL PPL
0.57% ED CON ED
0.80% SDY Dividend SPDR, SDY
3.22% XME Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.17% VB Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.05% IWP Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.88% PRF Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.56% JNK Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
3.58% MAR MARRIOTT INTL STK A
0.93% IWF Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
3.92% WHR WHIRLPOOL
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-12.45% HPQ HEWLETT PACKARD
-8.20% SHLD SEARS HOLDINGS
-5.94% LXK LEXMARK INTL STK A
-1.57% GPS GAP
-2.09% LTD LIMITED BRANDS
-2.40% PDCO Patterson Dental Company
-0.19% RAI Reynolds American
-0.39% EWS Singapore Index, EWS
-0.75% NWL NEWELL RUBBER
-0.67% KR KROGER
-0.53% VZ VERIZON COMMS
-0.04% GVI Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.30% India PS, PIN
3.43% India Earnings WTree, EPI
3.22% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.70% China 25 iS, FXI
2.39% Italy Index, EWI
2.18% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.15% Spain Index, EWP
2.06% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.05% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.97% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.88% Russia MV, RSX
1.86% Sweden Index, EWD
1.83% Water Resources, PHO
1.81% South Africa Index, EZA
1.76% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.73% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.71% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.70% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.62% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.62% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.62% Germany Index, EWG
1.55% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.53% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.49% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.48% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.48% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.44% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.43% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.43% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.42% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.41% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.40% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.40% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.39% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.37% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.36% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.35% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.34% Energy DJ, IYE
1.34% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.32% Energy Global, IXC
1.26% European VIPERs, VGK
1.26% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.26% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.23% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.21% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.21% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.17% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.16% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.16% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.14% Austria Index, EWO
1.13% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.13% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.13% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.11% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.11% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.11% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.11% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.10% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.09% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.09% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.09% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.08% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.08% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.05% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.04% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.03% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.02% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.02% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.01% France Index, EWQ
1.00% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.00% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.99% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.98% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.98% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.97% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.95% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.94% Global 100, IOO
0.93% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.91% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.91% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.91% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.89% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.89% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.89% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.87% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.86% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.84% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.84% Networking, IGN
0.82% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.81% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.81% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.81% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.81% Belgium Index, EWK
0.80% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.80% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.78% Dividend International, PID
0.78% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.77% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.77% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.75% South Korea Index, EWY
0.72% Australia Index, EWA
0.71% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.68% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.67% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.66% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.65% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.65% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.63% Japan Index, EWJ
0.62% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.61% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.60% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.59% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.57% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.56% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.56% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.56% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.54% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.54% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.54% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.51% Canada Index, EWC
0.51% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.46% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.45% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.44% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.43% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.42% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.15% Mexico Index, EWW
0.14% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.12% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.11% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.05% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.04% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.23% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.39% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.76% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.90% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.08% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.14% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1658.87, 50-day SMA
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1554.57, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
