Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 8/23/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 15 weeks on 8/23/13.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 15 weeks on 8/23/13.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, strictly speaking, although its trend has been changing in a bullish direction, and it is highly likely to turn bullish within the next few days. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/23/13.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/23/13 when XLE/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/23/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Materials (XLB) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highest levels of the previous 11 weeks on 8/23/13.
U.S. stock market price indexes opened higher and managed to add a slight amount to gains during the session on Friday. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,663.50, up 0.39%) closed above the open, above the previous day’s close, and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. SPX crossed back above its widely-watched 50-day SMA.
SPX is nearly unchanged since its high last May, suggesting neutral/sideways price momentum for the medium term. Short-term daily momentum was bearish from the SPX intraday high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13 to the SPX intraday low at 1,639.43 on 8/21/13, but that too appears to be changing in recent days. Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), were bearishly divergent compared to SPX price after May, 2013, but they have turned upward somewhat in recent days.
NYSE total volume rose 3% to a level 23% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE rose for the second consecutive session, this after falling below its lowest closes of the previous 7 weeks on 8/19/13. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line also rose again, after falling below its lowest closes of the previous 6 weeks on 8/21/13. Previously, both Volume and Breadth lines failed to rise above their May highs when the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows turned negative on Thursday 8/15/13 and remains bearish, that is, with a lesser number of New Highs and greater number of New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its May high at the August price highs, thereby warning of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The Transportation Average whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/22/13, but the Industrial Average remained well below its 50-day SMA.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, strictly speaking, although its trend has been changing in a bullish direction, and it is highly likely to turn bullish within the next few days. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/23/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Longer term, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 8/23/13. The GLD price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Support: 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 15 weeks on 8/23/13. SLV price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Support 22.02, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 15 weeks on 8/23/13. SLV/GLD crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.29% MSFT MICROSOFT
7.69% ADSK AUTODESK
3.95% SLV Silver Trust iS, SLV
4.17% DOW DOW CHEMICAL
0.45% IVE Value S&P 500 B, IVE
6.04% CECO CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.62% PWV Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
3.13% SIL Silver Miners Global X, SIL
3.19% NFLX Netflix, NFLX
3.41% RSH RADIOSHACK
5.51% NIHD NII Holdings, Inc.
1.57% GLD Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.97% UIS UNISYS
1.31% PPG PPG INDUSTRIES
1.86% HAL HALLIBURTON
0.56% IYK Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
0.61% IEV Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
4.34% EWZ Brazil Index, EWZ
2.38% OXY OCCIDENTAL
1.46% HOG HARLEY DAVIDSON
0.76% IYE Energy DJ, IYE
0.78% PID Dividend International, PID
1.96% ROST Ross Stores Inc
1.09% TLT Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.39% GNTX Gentex Corporation
0.87% EWP Spain Index, EWP
1.03% NWL NEWELL RUBBER
0.34% IWV LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
2.15% MO ALTRIA, MO
0.88% IXN Technology Global, IXN
0.55% AMD ADV MICRO DEV
0.93% PGJ China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.21% IWN Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.94% MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-2.30% FLEX Flextronics International Ltd
-1.00% PST 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-4.42% KBH KB HOME
-1.35% STLD Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.82% MNST Monster Beverage, MNST
-2.00% TYC TYCO INTL
-2.29% TBT 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.16% MDT MEDTRONIC
-1.00% NKE NIKE STK B
-0.54% HSIC Henry Schein Inc
-0.74% BIG BIG LOTS
-1.39% XHB Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.70% CVS CVS
-0.62% CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS
-1.44% PETM PETsMART Inc
-0.42% BBT BB&T
-0.51% JBL JABIL CIRCUIT
-0.21% MKC MCCORMICK
-0.55% DRI DARDEN REST
-0.66% SLB SCHLUMBERGER
-0.39% MAR MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-0.15% HD HOME DEPOT
-0.02% EXPD Expeditors International WA
-0.05% PCAR PACCAR
-0.10% GRMN GARMIN LTD
-0.10% GPS GAP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.34% Brazil Index, EWZ
3.95% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.66% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.26% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.89% India PS, PIN
1.72% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.71% Japan Index, EWJ
1.69% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.57% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.44% South Korea Index, EWY
1.43% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.42% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.38% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.29% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.27% Australia Index, EWA
1.18% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.18% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.17% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.09% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.09% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.04% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.04% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.03% South Africa Index, EZA
1.00% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.97% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.93% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.92% Belgium Index, EWK
0.92% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.91% Canada Index, EWC
0.91% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.88% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.87% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.87% Spain Index, EWP
0.86% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.85% Energy Global, IXC
0.85% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.85% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.84% Global 100, IOO
0.84% Sweden Index, EWD
0.83% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.81% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.80% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.79% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.78% Dividend International, PID
0.76% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.76% Energy DJ, IYE
0.76% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.75% Austria Index, EWO
0.72% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.72% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.72% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.71% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.71% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.70% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.69% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.69% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.69% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.67% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.67% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.67% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.67% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.65% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.64% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.63% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.63% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.62% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.61% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.60% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.58% Italy Index, EWI
0.58% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.58% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.56% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.56% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.55% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.54% France Index, EWQ
0.51% European VIPERs, VGK
0.50% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.49% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.49% Mexico Index, EWW
0.49% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.46% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.45% Russia MV, RSX
0.45% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.44% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.44% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.42% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.42% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.42% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.39% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.38% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.37% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.34% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.34% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.34% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.33% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.33% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.32% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.30% Networking, IGN
0.29% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.28% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.27% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.27% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.27% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.26% Water Resources, PHO
0.26% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.26% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.25% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.25% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.23% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.22% Germany Index, EWG
0.22% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.21% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.21% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.21% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.19% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.18% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.16% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.15% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.15% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.14% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.12% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.12% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.11% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.10% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.08% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.07% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.05% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.05% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.02% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.02% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.00% Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.08% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.11% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.18% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.32% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.35% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.36% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.39% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1659.41, 50-day SMA
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1639.43, low of 8/21/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1554.74, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
